A fascinating post from Will Wilkinson, riffing on Nicholas Eberstadt's American Interest essay on America's enduring demographic exceptionalism.
(See also Reihan's post on the Eberstadt essay.)
« Who's Afraid of Hillary Clinton? | Main | The Wrong Pander » Why Americans Have More Children28 Apr 2007 02:43 am Comments (6)
I pretty much agree with Karen (and also note that France's birthrate is increasing and is now the highest in Europe, albeit still something below replacement). Some population fall in countries like the UK might be inevitable as babyboomers shuffle off, of course. I also agree with Karen on the question of space. I am from the UK myself and now live in a relatively rural part of the North-East of the US, and space is absolutely one of my favourite things about living here, where I can afford a good-sized house on a decent lot. Even without the dollar being in the toilet, going back would mean a lot more expense involved in finding a much smaller space in which to live. 
The Dirt Gap is the biggest explanatory variable: America has a lot more dirt to build houses on that does Western Europe. Bigger supply of dirt means lower land prices. Lower housing prices mean couples can afford to get married and have children. (More space also means white people can more easly find "good" public schools -- i.e., schools insulated by distance from larges masses of underperforming minority students). You see the exact same process in the U.S. in the last two Presidential elections: Bush carried 25 of the 26 states with the highest white total fertility rate (babies per woman), while Kerry won the bottom 16. Same with measures of years married among younger white adults. Similar for housing costs and housing inflation. A quick look at a map shows that the Blue States are located along oceans and Great Lakes, so suburban housing expansion can't proceed in 360 degrees the way it can in inland Red States. That's the bottom line. You can read all about how Affordable Family Formation drives American voting here: http://blog.vdare.com/archives/2005/05/08/affordable-family-formation-the-neglected-key-to-gops-future/
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No one should be allowed to discuss this point without mentioning that American birthrates have been higher since the 18th C, mainly because we had space for people who, in Europe, would never have married and had kids to do so. That said, I tend to agree with Reihan much more than Wilkerson on this one. I have two kids, and most of my friends -- all liberal secularists I might add -- have two or three kids. But, we live in Austin, Texas, which is pretty cheap compared to other places, even in Texas. Yeah, houses are outrageous here compared to Houston or Dallas, but the schools are good and things like food and gas are cheaper. Our middle class monoculture means that there isn't as much need to buy into a gated community or far-away suburb or, and this is a real biggie, pay for private school.
I have friends on the coasts, and in Vancouver, and they simply don't have those options. Houses are stratospheric, and, in addition to the scary mortgage numbers, the public schools are gang-infested pest holes. In fact, one set of our friends were able to buy a lot in the most expensive neighboorhood in Austin, tear down the old building on it, and build a five bedroom home buy using the proceeds from the sale of their modest 3-2 in Alexandria, VA. They have a big mortgage, but they're getting their money's worth, unlike, say, the place they left.
In small, highly-urbanized European countries, this simply isn't an option. Perhaps a roomier place like France, with an old country tradition, could have developed differently, but they didn't. If you want good job, you have to live in or near a big city. It's not like Paris can suddenly build a bunch of freeways to downtown, either.
I, for one, am not really convinced of the "scary brown people are outbreeding us" argument, since it's been used for something like 100 years, just moving the identity of the evil dark-skinned sorts. Just because I don't see dhimmitude in Europe's future doesn't mean, however, that I don't see a problem with their birthrates and lack of family formation. Forgive me for being judgmental here, but, really, no one is a grown-up without kids. Being able to marry and have a family is what humans are programmed to do, and if few of them can do so, then there's a problem. In a few years, once things get less crowded and hence less expensive, I fully expect to see European birthrates rise to at least replacement rate. In the meantime, do something about the pensions, and start assimilating the immigrants.
Posted by Karen | April 28, 2007 2:41 PM