American Junta

Now that everyone's talking about Thomas Sowell's yearning for a military coup, Professor Bainbridge tackles the more important question of whether a coup would work. As James Joyner has already pointed out, the definitive text on this matter is Charles Dunlap's The Origins of the Military Coup of 2012, though I would also recommend the Harper's symposium on the topic from a couple years back, whose roundtable included Dunlap, Andrew Bacevich, Richard Kohn and Edward Luttwak. Sadly, all those worthies were too sober-minded to take the possibility of an actual Seven Days in May all that seriously, and so the discussion turned rather quickly to the somewhat duller topic of civilian-military relations - but it's still worth a look.

From the Atlantic, meanwhile, here's Thomas Ricks on the Dunlap essay, and then Ricks' longer, much-lauded essay on on the civilian-military divide.

Comments

Wow.

Sowell's points may be over the top and laced with frustration, but the military coup comment reads more like sardonic humor than "yearning" for a coup.

But please: let's all overreact!

Posted by Liam Colvin | May 4, 2007 2:25 PM

The problem with a coup is not so much if one could pull it off (though that is a big if) but how one could keep anything that resembled America in the aftermath. Gaining (even keeping) control of the District of Columbia and rounding up 1-2 thousand politicians and government officials is not that incredible of a military problem. Assuming the Coup was to remove a disfavored president and replace him/her with someone not too far down the line of sucession it could be done (though the recipient of the "honor" would never be reelected)

But at the end of the story how does that solve the problems Sowell decries in the media, the culture, the politicians, and the education establishment? To seize and keep control of all these areas is something else entirely. One might ask where all of the conservative newscasters, actors, pols, and educators going to come from? There are plenty but not enough to fill all the "holes". Making ideology the screen for who is hired and promoted has been the failing of the liberal establishment in these areas. Repeating their error, with feeling, does not seem like a good idea (and is how we came to have an Arabian horse expert in charge of FEMA). Plus democracy for all of its flaws works better at building the economy that built the military.

If we devoted the resources to governing and moderating everything that happens those resources are not being used to do things that make everyone better off. China can do it because they have very low utilization of the population. We have a more mature economy much closer to full employment.

Siphon off a few million people from our labor pool to monitor what everyone else is doing and you make a pretty big dent in our productive population. Then there are all the folks to hunt down the suspects, torture the suspects, guard the "guilty", and execute the worst of the "unreliable," plus the bureaucrats to screen prospective watchers, guards, torturers, and executioners for "reliability". Add it all up and there are a lot fewer people and resources left to build, move, and sell products and services. Everyone else loses productivity as well as they self-edit what they say, write, and do.

The military loses effectiveness as well as different parts are played against each other to avoid a repeat (not to mention solving succession issues). The shrinking economy forces a gradual hollowing out of the military.

I don't see the end state being better than where we are.

Posted by Don | May 6, 2007 5:34 PM

A coup would be, not only unAmerican, but useless. America left, right and center would revolt (even or especially, me). I agree that Sowell was joking and I also agree with Don about its effects. Franco took over Spain and look at it two decades after he died-Same-sex marriage, anti-Catholic, Islam-appeasing weenie-ville (excuse me "weenie-villanova").

I have a better (for discussion purposes) thought problem. A new Civil War. What would the sides be and who would win? Seems to me with the death of Communism all the Lefties who can fight, or even have guns are done. I refuse to lose a war to vegetarians. I don't know what the fight would be about, but I think the Right would win. Especially if it were over some liberal effort to turn over sovereignty to a U.N. E.U.-type outfit; or to cancel "American Idol."

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