To be perfectly blunt, no Republican can win the White House without winning Ohio. Although readers of this column would no doubt like to see and hear the presidential nominees up close, the reality is that California, at least when it comes to elections, is as blue as the Pacific. A successful Republican candidate in Ohio will have learned how to articulate a culturally conservative message fused with government accountability and economic opportunity specifically tailored to voters in the industrial heartland. Without the support of the anxious working class, Ohio will also turn deep blue. And so will the United States.
I hope Jonah, in the spirit of consistency, will call Frank Luntz to account for making the kind of "nonsense" prediction that's typical of "young wonky bloggers" these days.
Update: I see Larison beat me to the punch.
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Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream
Privilege: Harvard and the Education of the Ruling Class
I must dissent somewhat from Mr. Luntz. Ohio has been "purple" for some time. Bill Clinton won here twice and Bush had to put together the most sophisticated GOTV campaign in history to win by a slim margin.
The idea that just one voting block is key to Ohio is just too simple. Ohio is a very complex state with a number of large urban core cities, old and wealthy more urban styled suburbs, exurbia, small towns, and rural Appalachia.
Successful politicians here always come off as stable and centrist. Ted Strickland is governor but he has governed in a way that is practically identical to Bob Taft. The budget passed almost unanimously through a Republican controlled General Assembly.
Sure, if the GOP candidate runs a poor campaign and loses Ohio it is hard to see how they win the general. But I fail to see how Ohio suddenly turns deep blue. The question is whether the state leans center-right or center-left.
Posted by Kevin Holtsberry | July 16, 2007 12:07 PM