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Supply-Siders and Their Friends

06 Sep 2007 11:57 am

In the course of a larger debate over the influence of supply-side economics, touched off by Jon Chait's book and TNR excerpt, Ezra Klein complained that mainstream conservative (and non-conservative) economists regularly write for the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, and in the process lend "their titles and credibility to an outlet that continually promotes a fundamentally poisonous and empirically laughable ideology."

To which Will Wilkinson retorted:

I’m sure it seems to many intelligent people that the collected work of Robert Kuttner, the founder and editor of Ezra’s magazine, is extremist and intellectually sloppy (if not always mendacious) and “promotes a fundamentally poisonous and empirically laughable ideology.” Yet Ezra still chooses to write for The American Prospect. And so do many perfectly respectable academics. Why? Probably because its editorial vision is closer to their views than the relevant alternatives. And, just perhaps, the economic outlook of the Journal editorial page is closer to the views of many Nobel Prize-winning economist than the relevant alternatives, as inconvenient or annoying as that fact may be to some people.

Then Larison chimed in:

It isn’t a question of credible people lending support to a “laughable ideology” or credible people who are ideologically inclined towards the paper’s editorial views publishing in a comfortable venue. Prominent, respectable economists submit articles to the WSJ op-ed page because the paper is one of the most widely-circulated national newspapers whose main focus is reporting on business and finance. A huge percentage of WSJ readers, whose politics are happily not always that of the immigration-cum-imperialism crowd who write the paper’s editorials, is made up of people who make their living working for corporations or investing in the market (or both) and who want to have informed commentary about developments in the economy. Economists publish their op-eds in the WSJ to reach an audience that is going to be interested in what they have to say. And supposedly clever schemes of building up the empire of the supply-siders really has nothing to do with it.

I think they're both right. As Daniel says, the WSJ op-ed page is important because the WSJ is important, and so if you're interesting in reaching influential readers it makes sense to publish there regardless of what you think of the editorial page next door. (The same goes for the Times op-ed page, obviously; if I had an op-ed published there, I wouldn't beat myself up because I was somehow "lending credibility" to the Times' arch-liberal editorials.) But it's also the case, as Will says, that mainstream conservative economists don't go around bashing supply-siders because, well, supply-siders tend to be their political allies. As Megan has been arguing, it's possible to support lower tax rates - as it's possible to support any policy - for good reasons and bad, and it's the nature of politics that alliances form around shared support for particular policies, not on "quality of your reasoning" grounds. So yes, conservatives who believe in lower taxes and leaner government but recognize that cutting taxes doesn't raise revenue could spend all their time anathematizing Larry Kudlow and attacking every GOP politician who makes "free lunch" claims. But I don't think it's intellectually dishonest or hypocritical for the Greg Mankiws of the world, who publicly acknowledge that tax cuts don't directly raise revenue but support them for other reasons, to work with and for supply-siders, rather than threatening to resign in protest every time a Bush Administration official makes an implausible boast about tax cuts' magic powers. It's just a recognition that political reality requires making alliances with people who believe the right things (or what you take to be the right things) for the wrong reasons.

Now, I also think that conservatives have taken this principle too far where the Kudlows of the world are concerned, but I'm participating in a forum on Jon Chait's book over at TPMCafe next week, so I'll keep the rest of my powder dry till then.

Comments (27)

i agree that the point of not "working with" or "working for" supply-siders and their enablers goes a bridge too far.

that having been said, however, i think you miss the devastating point that yglesias and chait are making. when you listen to republican politicians, MANY of them spout the argument that cutting taxes raises revenue. when you read the weekly standard or the national review, they not only assert it, but they don't publish articles that point out that this is false. when any prominent republican politician challenges the claim, the club for growth and other movement conservative organizations go to work and make it very difficult for that person until he drinks the cool-aid. (that's chait's point about bob dole.)

in other words, it is fair to say that the conservative movement, as a whole, is committed to espousing a false idea. and they do it because they know it is politically potent-- anyone supports tax cuts if they really are a free lunch.

given this fact, i would say that it isn't good enough for conservatives who know that it's a lie to just say silent. people are being driven out of the movement for not espousing the lie! your most prominent publications are committed to spreading the lie and not publishing articles that point out the truth!

and further, your and megan's defense calls into grave question the good faith of the entire enterprise. because what you are basically saying is that while you know the truth, you have no problem associating yourself with a movement that is willing to tell a gigantic lie to the public, over and over again, and enforce that lie as a matter of political orthodoxy, in order to get your preferred policy enacted. if you ask me, that's darned immoral.

What Dilan said. I would only add that this sort of "enemy of my enemy" argument can really only go so far before the victory you arrive at is not the one you had intended. Team up with economic fabulists if you want, but supporting their ideology is not a matter of helping them win a single referendum - these ideas have long term consequences as well. What is the "end" of cutting taxes? What's the purpose? I would imagine that Ross and Will Wilkinson would answer this question in very different ways.

Dilan has it.

The fact that someone somewhere in the conservative movement acknowledges that the tax cuts don't amount to a plan to end deficits indicates that conservatives don't care about the lies their party depends on to get votes.

Ezra, Matt, and Brendan are all over this.

There is zero cost (among supporters, and darn little in the media) to GOP politicians for telling lies that advance the Party's interests.

because what you are basically saying is that while you know the truth, you have no problem associating yourself with a movement that is willing to tell a gigantic lie to the public, over and over again, and enforce that lie as a matter of political orthodoxy, in order to get your preferred policy enacted. if you ask me, that's darned immoral.

why do i suspect that you wouldn't call out your own side if it was your own particular ox that was being gored? politics is a dirty business. how dirty is too dirty is a judgment call. get over it.

Thursday,

Name an ox or something comparable on the democratic side. Sure, individual politicians on the left have their own misleading proposals but I can't think of any policy on the left which is sold, by the entire establishment, in such a misleading manner.

Citizen:
Happy to oblige: the idea that raising the minimum wage helps the poor.

All of which proves the Tocqueville remark about the inherent contradiction between freedom and equality. I read the NYT and the WSJ daily and find the WSJ by far the more reasonable and interesting paper, mainly due to its adherence to Hayek and Milton Friedman more than to Laffer.

Chait in the long run will prove a cipher during our time. A leftist babe in the woods.

Thursday: please read this link about that issue. In that post, Ezra links "a recent letter signed by over 650 economists, including five nobel prize winners and six past presidents of the American Economic Association calling for an increase in the minimum wage. That's not to say opponents of an increase couldn't furnish a similar letter -- the point here is that there is not, as the right would like you to think, an economic consensus that raising the wage would be a bad thing."

Where does Dilan et al.'s claim that the Laffer curve is wrong come from? It's one thing to point out that revenues don't necessarily rise with tax cuts (and yes, Kudlow is often comical in his relentless optimism, but that doesn't mean is always wrong), it's quite another to say that this never happens. I mean, is the projected deficit not going down, "despite" the Bush tax cuts? Are you guys really arguing that it's not possible for tax cuts to partly fuel increased economic activity, thus boosting tax revenues? Or are you arguing something else that I'm just not getting...

Elvis,

If the minimum wage were raised to $10 an hour tomorrow, would some people lose their jobs as a result? If that is so, then why isn't it so at the current minimum wage? (If you don't think it is so, please explain why.) The study in S.F. that Klein links to merely indicates that in that particular context, there weren't appreciable job losses. But how do we know that job gains wouldn't have been greater without the raise?

Raising the minimum wage is a blunt tool for trying to help the poor. It helps some of the poor, while hurting others, and also helps some people who don't need it (at the expense of their employers, many of whom are small business owners - the forgotten man in the discussion). The reason Democrats love it is because it is so politically popular. But if helping out the working poor in a cost-effective manner were the main priority, there are better ways to accomplish it than raising the minimum wage.

Raising the minimum wage is a blunt tool for trying to help the poor. It helps some of the poor, while hurting others, and also helps some people who don't need it (at the expense of their employers, many of whom are small business owners - the forgotten man in the discussion).

All of these statements are true, to varying degrees. I think the evidence suggests that a minimum wage, set at a reasonable level, helps more people than it hurts. But like nearly all policies, there are negative side effects to a minimum wage, and supporters naturally play down those negative aspects in political debates. This is comparable to the true-but-exaggerated Republican claims about tax cuts boosting economic growth.

These are both entirely different phenomena from the one in which Republican politicians flat-out lie and claim that tax cuts increase government revenues. This is as if Democrats didn't merely claim that raising the minimum wage will help the poor, but also claimed that it will boost the profits of small businesses. It's a complete and utter fabrication. Any Democrat who did such a thing would deserve contempt.

Mike S,

Serious question, I understand that a hike in the minimum wage can cost jobs and can give teenagers a little extra pocket cash they might not need, but to say definitively that such a hike hurts the poor, isn't it necessary to consider the impact of a hike on the millions of minimum wage earners who don't lose their jobs?

What I am trying to ask is if an additional $2 an hour transfer helps those poor people because those additional $2 have a much greater marginal utility for them than it would if it remained in the hands of the transferee, then wouldn't the quantification of that alone possibly give you a number that offsets the costs of job losses?

Not to mention that the poor are more likely to spend those $2 and, thus, multiply those dollars through the economy. Whereas the transferee may be wealthy enough to chose to save it if it remains in his hands. Doesn't that potential positive effect have to also be calculated before we all decide for certain that a minimum wage hike that costs jobs necessarily hurts the poor?

But maybe you know of econometric studies that have already resolved this question?

Mike S.:

On the Laffer Curve, nobody denies that tax cuts COULD theoretically stimulate economic growth. That comes from Keynes, not Laffer. (But I should add three BIG caveats: (1) nobody really knows great this effect is, and there are certainly historical examples of booms at times of high marginal tax rates (1950's) or after tax increases (1990's); (2) Keynes also observes that SPENDING increases can have the same fiscal stimulus-- giving people money through spending is macroeconomically indistiguishable from cutting their taxes; and (3) the types of tax cuts that result in fiscal stimuli are TEMPORARY, and you are supposed to RAISE taxes and CUT spending (run a surplus) in good times to prevent inflation. Conservatives don't admit any of this, which is completely orthodox economics.)

I also would add that nobody really denies that one could posit a marginal tax rate where additional increases in taxes will not pay for themselves, and tax cuts do. In other words, the right side of the Laffer Curve does exist. If taxes are so oppressive that people are simply not feeling that it is worth it to work harder because they won't receive adequate compensation for their efforts, yes, a tax cut could bring in enough revenue to pay for itself.

But that does not describe our current tax system. No great number of people stops working because they don't want to pay 28-33 percent marginal tax rates. At most, people make some SHORT TERM economic decisions based on taxes, but the idea that cutting taxes will free up all this additional capital and productivity in the economy that people are refusing to put forward at a 28 to 33 percent tax rate is BS.

Mike S.:

You are too definitive on the minimum wage. I don't doubt that imposing a price floor, in theory, forces a decrease in demand. But there's a debate as to whether, due to other economic factors, the minimum wage really has that effect. It is simply subject to debate in the way that the above analysis about the Laffer Curve is not.

I think the whole "tax cuts increase revenue" argument that you hear Larry Kudlow style conservatives make shows just how far from real conservatism the modern American "right" really is. The whole point to cutting taxes was an indirect way to make the government smaller and less intrusive. The idea being, obviously, that you starve the beast. Today's Republican's talk about increasing revenue like it's a good thing! They no longer fight the good fight about an ever expanding state, but instead are trying to sell a cost free way to accelerate the growth of government. It's depressing really.

Cutting taxes should be a tool used to limit the growth of government, instead we hear conservatives describe tax cutting as a better way to feed the beast.

As an aside, cutting taxes does lead to more growth, which will eventually lead to increased revenue. Here's the CBO's historical report on revenue: http://www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf

If you don't feel like following the link, it says this (in billions):
year revenue
2000 2025
2001 1991
2002 1853
2003 1782
2004 1880
2005 2153
2006 2407

So the effect takes awhile (and I'm open to the possibility that the increase is due to other causes) but it is real. I just wish that Bush wouldn't have exacerbated the debt by increasing spending. The worst of all worlds, really.

So the effect takes awhile (and I'm open to the possibility that the increase is due to other causes)

That's a really strange argument. A tax cut occurs, and revenue goes down. But then, years later, revenue climbs back up and eventually, 5 years later, you get to where you were before.

Why, exactly, should the increased revenues in the out years be ascribed to the tax cut, while the decreased revenues in the immediate years after the tax cut are not?

Further, your chart is not even in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Thus, the "increase" in tax revenue has more to do with inflation than anything else.

Finally, if you look at the same chart, you will see that revenues increased EVERY year after the 1991 and 1993 tax increases, UNTIL 2001, when Bush passed his first tax cut. So, by your lights, tax increases increase revenues, not tax cuts. Or does it not matter which way you change the tax rate, as long as you change it?

Ross, I'm not sure if the WSJ/American Prospect or NY Times comparison is entirely fair, given reasons that Larison (sort of) acknowledges in his post. Look at what he says about the readership of the WSJ:

"Prominent, respectable economists submit articles to the WSJ op-ed page because the paper is one of the most widely-circulated national newspapers whose main focus is reporting on business and finance. A huge percentage of WSJ readers... is made up of people who make their living working for corporations or investing in the market (or both) and who want to have informed commentary about developments in the economy."

I don't think you can make a similar claim about the American Prospect or NY Times, whose readerships are, respectively, the less specific (although much smaller) group of wonkish liberals and the broader group of people who, I dunno, like news, or who to some charming types are Volvo-driving, latte-drinking liberals. If the Prospect were fundamentally "about" health policy, or at the very least technocratic public policy, and frequently published unsigned editorials arguing the hypothetical ridiculous claim that Matt Yglesias has a hypothetical Hillary Clinton arguing, "I believe a policy of 'Medicare for all' could save enough money to pay for a universal preschool program and more generous Social Security benefits," then by Klein's logic, it would be dishonest for someone such as himself to write for them. The WSJ, on the other hand, is ostensibly a publication specified for business-oriented, economically-minded types, a much 'narrower' focus, and as such, the conflation of incoherent supply-sidism with the presence of elite economists is problematic. With the implicit or explicit claim that the Journal is economically oriented in ways that other news sources might not be taken into account, this particular point of the argument doesn't hold up.

One recalls that Robert Kuttner's skill at economic prognostication is flawed to say the
leas; one late 1990 piece in the New Republic
predicting a Depression; and the need for a
FDR like leader; which he found a poor substitute
in Bill Clinton. He's not as daft as Mike Davis;
the left's social ethnographer and LA slanderer
who was predicting "car bombs on Rodeo Drive' as
a result of ethnic turmoil as late as early '93;
if the stimulus package wasn't passed.

Narciso-- please note that Robert Kuttner and Mike Davis have never had as much influence over fiscal policy as avowed "tax cuts pay for themselves" types such as Dick Cheney, George Bush, John McCain, and Rudy Giuliani.

Mike S-- I don't want to argue about the minimum wage on this thread. The point is, there's no liberal dogma that is patently false (as opposed to politically debated). Conservative politicians at the highest levels routinely make false claims about tax cuts paying for themselves.

Dilan Esper, you are right in everything that you wrote. All I'm saying is that it's a bit strong to say that these guys are lying when they say that tax cuts increase revenue. They are definitely being lawyerly, but to say that they are straight up lying is a bit much. Revenue did, eventually, go up. And they could probably claim that the increased revenue was a result of a growing economy that could reasonably be attributed to top income tax decreases. And a true partisan would probably point out that 9/11 had a negative affect on the economy that the tax decrease softened.

But, again, a true conservative would not claim that it's a great thing that revenue went up. It should be an ongoing goal for conservatives to reduce revenue and spending, at the same time. Bush is not a conservative. A Republican, sure, but not a conservative. Bush has lied about a great many things, I'm just not sure that this is a prime example.

I would also point out that inflation was partly the result of increased deficit spending that no true conservative would advocate (see Ron Paul).

I'm too lazy to look for the article on Slate, but there was an interesting Moneybox article there a few years ago that pointed to a study done on all of the research about instances in which raising the American minimum wage hurt workers. In statistics and statistics-based economics, as the sample size increases, the margin of error should decrease if there is a trend. However, with the minimum wage-is-bad studies, as the sample size increased, the margin of error remained pretty much constant, suggesting that there was no real line of causation. The idea that the minimum wage must lead to higher unemployment and a worse economic situation for the working class overall depends on certain pre-conditions (often full labor employment, IIRC) that aren't always there. In addition, increasing lower-class income also has stimulating effects since the poor can't afford to save as much as the rich and thus spend their increased income. The Bush tax cuts to the rich have largely been saved in banks instead of invested into the domestic economy and new businesses, as Krugman has noted. We don't live in an Econ 101 textbook where we have a perfect market economy and it is foolhardy to pretend we do and craft policies for a world in which we don't live.

We're not just talking about Larry Kudlow here. We're talking about the President, the Vice-President, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Grover Norquist, the editorialists at the WSJ, the Weekly Standard, and National Review, and the whole slew of business lobbyists who support breaks and subsidies for purely selfish reasons. These are the most powerful forces in today's Republican party, and it is something that the existence of sane, small government types at The Economist does not come close to excusing.

keatssycamore,

What I am trying to ask is if an additional $2 an hour transfer helps those poor people because those additional $2 have a much greater marginal utility for them than it would if it remained in the hands of the transferee, then wouldn't the quantification of that alone possibly give you a number that offsets the costs of job losses?

Sure, it's possible for a minimum wage to be a net benefit in for some particular set of parameters. But what makes you think that you (or anyone else) know how to calculate that marginal utility optimum? I think markets are better ways to do that than centralized bureaucracies or politicians are.

The other problem is that focusing on numbers alone is sufficient. There is a lot of benefit to society to having its least skilled members in the workforce. All things being equal, I'd rather have these people working with those slightly ahead of them making slightly less.

Not to mention that the poor are more likely to spend those $2 and, thus, multiply those dollars through the economy. Whereas the transferee may be wealthy enough to chose to save it if it remains in his hands. Doesn't that potential positive effect have to also be calculated before we all decide for certain that a minimum wage hike that costs jobs necessarily hurts the poor?

I think it is a fallacy that when middle class or wealthy people save money it isn't helpful to the economy. Certainly I don't think it provides sufficient justification for using the power of the state to transfer some of their money to other people.

But maybe you know of econometric studies that have already resolved this question?

No, I don't, and like Elvis, I don't have any inclination to get into the weeds on this. My impression is that most changes in the minimum wage are relatively small, and thus any effects (positive or negative) are small and therefore difficult to pull out of the noise.

To go back to the earlier posts, the distinction was made between WSJ editorials and op-eds. But some of the op-eds are pretty kooky too. I remember one on the benefits of "thwacking" your kids. Or Michah Minor's series on drug running at Mena Airport in Arkansas, with the subtext that Bill Clinton was behind it all. Etc. etc. etc. Many of these pieces had the logic and substantiation of National Enquirer articles, albeit written more elegantly.

We could back further and in a different political-ideological direction and recall that Alex Cockburn and Arthur Schlesinger saved some of their most absolutely dreadful pieces for the WSJ op-ed pages, which I think the Journal published as a means of sticking a burning ember in the eyes of the left (though that wouldn't explain why they published the equally idiotic worst of Irving Kristol at the same time).

But some really 1st rate authors have published some of their lesser quality work in outlets like Playboy, where it sat along schlock like the Playboy Philiosophy. Not unlike academics, where some of us unfortunately have to confront "the journal of last resort" dilemma when our work gets rejected by better outlets, and eswtimate the damage to our reputation by publishing alongside some real crap articlres (not that our work could ever be described as such) versus the benefit of one more publication line on the cv.

Expecting nonm-supply-sdie distinguished conservative economists to avoid the WSJ op-ed pages is sort of like asking lawyers not to defend rich guilty obnoxious clients.

Sure, it's possible for a minimum wage to be a net benefit in for some particular set of parameters. But what makes you think that you (or anyone else) know how to calculate that marginal utility optimum? I think markets are better ways to do that than centralized bureaucracies or politicians are.

But markets don't calculate distributional welfare issues. A market that delivers $1 to 999,999 workers and $9,999,000,001 to one worker is efficient, if the maximum possible total productive potential of the economy is $10 billion. And nothing in economic theory indicates that a market has any mechanisms that will PER SE prevent such a result (though there can be specific circumstances where it can happen).

A minimum wage can be justified economically or politically. The economic justification depends on whether it is reasonably close to Pereto-efficient, i.e., whether it raises wages at the bottom without making an appreciable number of people worse off. We can argue that all day.

But the political justificiation for the minimum wage is that some measure of decreased inequality may be worth it even if it makes some number of people worse off. And markets simply have nothing to tell us about the answer to that question.

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