Reihan: Why the Tesla Roadster Won't Transform the Way We Drive

FuturePundit pours cold water on a very ambitious project.

They've got a car they've designed with very light and expensive materials. They probably have little or no luggage space. I bet it doesn't do well in crash tests either. They are using the best batteries they can find. Yet it is good for only 245 miles. Plus, once you've driven three and a half to four hours with it you've got to stop and wait just as long for it to recharge. This is a local car, not suitable for cross-country travel. In order for batteries to totally replace liquid fuels future batteries have got to store more electric power per unit weight and be capable of recharge in 1% of the time of current best-of-breed batteries. Is this physically possible?

I certainly hope so. The great thing about FuturePundit is that every post is very thorough and offers plenty of background information. It is thus a terrific resource even for those who disagree with the editorial voice. Check it out.

Comments

Why wait for them to recharge? Trade them for freshly charged batteries at a service station. 245 miles isn't that much lower than most cars' cruising radius.

Posted by Mike | October 2, 2007 12:14 PM

Monbiot proposed this too -- the problem is, the batteries in question are HUGE. You'd need a crane. Looks like it isn't practicable, for now at least. You'd be swapping out a vast chunk of the car. Imagine if cars had to swap out their engines or drive-trains all the time.

Posted by Reihan | October 2, 2007 1:05 PM

My guess is that this naysaying is obscuring that we are getting closer to the goal. In other words, in 10 years, isn't this plausible:

1. Smaller batteries, which will allow for luggage and passenger space and the possibility of changing them.

2. Greater cruising range, perhaps to the length of a day's drive (600 miles or so).

3. Greater power output, which will permit heavier materials and safer cars.

4. Better safety features, which will ensure that even a lighter weight car will protect you in a crash.

5. Shorter charging time, so that the batteries could be recharged in say 3 hours after driving for 12.

When we get to that point, won't we have a viable electric car, even for long-distance travel, which could be charged at roadside motels and rest stops?

Posted by Dilan Esper | October 2, 2007 3:03 PM

"Naysaying": I'm talking about the present. This isn't "naysaying" so much as a statement regarding the present state of batteries. I'm a great enthusiast for electric cars and research into battery technology.

Posted by Reihan | October 2, 2007 4:49 PM

WMike I agree with you why can't the battery pack wheel itself out a la segway? Like this, see link.

Posted by Robert | October 3, 2007 12:23 AM

Given that the vast majority of non-transport (i.e. trucking) miles are driven in commutes of 5 - 50 miles, twice a day, the recharge time of the batteries just isn't that big a deal.

I can't afford the roadster, but as I understand, Tesla is going to use the sales of the roadster to begin research on a more working-professional friendly sedan. If that pans out, there's a real possibility it will be my next car.

Posted by TW Andrews | October 3, 2007 4:40 PM

I don't know why FuturePundit feels compelled to attack this car with unfounded speculation.

"They probably have little or no luggage space."

A few minutes research would have revealed that the trunk space is small, but is significantly larger than the gasoline-powered Lotus Elise it was derived from.

"I bet it doesn't do well in crash tests either."

A few minutes research would have revealed that the Roadster has passed all of its crash tests.

"They are using the best batteries they can find. Yet it is good for only 245 miles." Which is about 75% longer range than the previous champion in this category, the EV1. It's a huge improvement. How often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day, really?

"This is a local car, not suitable for cross-country travel." Duh! It was never billed as a grand touring car. Why does this matter? Do you think anybody who buys a $100,000 exotic sports car doesn't already have another, more civilized car in their garage for taking long trips?

"In order for batteries to totally replace liquid fuels future batteries have got to store more electric power per unit weight and be capable of recharge in 1% of the time of current best-of-breed batteries." Which is completely missing the point. The Tesla Roadster is not designed to totally replace liquid fuels.

BEVs and PHEVs created with today's battery technology could replace a fair percentage of the light passenger vehicles in the world. As batteries improve, their potential market share can improve. And what's wrong with that? Why the hostility?

Posted by Tony Belding | October 4, 2007 11:12 AM

Tony,

I assign a pretty high probability to the argument of the Peak Oil folks that Peak Oil is near. So when I express disappointment about the Tesla Roadster it is because I'm comparing to to the standard of an affordable pure electric replacement for fossil fuels powered cars. We need electric cars or else we are on course to suffer a pretty big decline in our living standards when oil production starts declining.

I'm still optimistic that battery technology can advance to the point that pure electric cars with few hundred mile ranges become affordable. I'm also expecting improvements in recharge times and durability.

Passing crash tests: The minimal crash standard needed to make a car legal for sale in America is very far from the level of crash safety afforded by, say, a Volvo S80 or a Lincoln Town Car.

Tesla is using very expensive materials and very expensive batteries. What they've done is neat. I'm glad they did it. Hope their employees get rich from their stock options. But I'm looking more toward VC-funded battery start-ups and some big battery players like Johnson Controls and Panasonic for the solutions for electric cars.

Posted by Randall Parker | October 7, 2007 1:11 PM

If Peak Oil comes soon, we will indeed need affordable electric cars for the masses. But let's turn that around. . . Peak Oil isn't here yet, and you can't really expect the masses to buy into electric cars until it arrives -- not until there are actual gasoline shortages on at least the level of the 1970s oil shock, or worse. THEN they will all want electric cars.

Until that time comes, the Telsa Roadster is the kind of electric car that can sell and be viable in the marketplace.

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