Mike Huckabee Will Win Iowa ...

... unless Mitt Romney can find a way to do something about numbers like these:

Among Republican caucusgoers, 27 percent said they would support Mr. Romney, while 21 percent said they would support Mr. Huckabee and 15 percent said they would support Mr. Giuliani. But two-thirds of Mr. Romney’s backers said they could change their mind, a strikingly large number; by contrast, half of Mr. Huckabee’s supporters said they could change their mind. And nearly every one of Mr. Huckabee’s poll measures in Iowa, where he has focused most of his resources, was encouraging: 50 percent of respondents had a favorable view of him, compared with 7 percent who said they viewed him unfavorably.

Meanwhile, go read Richelieu (he's a smart guy - he should be a campaign consultant or something) on the Giuliani campaign and the expectations game in Iowa and NH.

Comments

two-thirds of Mr. Romney’s backers said they could change their mind...

If people support candidates who reflect their values it's not surprising that Romney's backers are firmly committed to changing their minds.

Posted by JB | November 14, 2007 9:54 AM

Ross, it seems to be the conventional wisdom (at least it's expressed by Richelieu as if it is) that if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then that's a big blow to Rudy's campaign. Why should that be the case at all?

Posted by John Savage | November 14, 2007 10:01 AM

I question whether this "striking" statistic is significant. 302 Republicans * 27% (Romney) or 21% (Huckabee) are samples of 82 or 63 voters. The margin of error on a poll of 63 people is pretty big.

(Though I'd like to nominate JB above for best comment of the year.)

Posted by John DE | November 14, 2007 1:14 PM

The real advantage Huckabee has is that he is alot of people's second choice. In Iowa that is key. I can write more and explain why if you want.

Posted by Dan | November 14, 2007 2:06 PM

"Though I'd like to nominate JB above for best comment of the year."

I'll second that.

Posted by Dave | November 14, 2007 2:27 PM

I'm sure the Romney folks wouldn't want to trade their poll numbers, but they've got to be smart enough to realize that the expectations game could really hurt them if they don't score a win, and that not scoring the win is pretty darn possible.

Posted by Adam Greenwood | November 14, 2007 3:13 PM

Dan:

I don't think second choice matters on the GOP side, just the Dems -- the GOP just does a straight count at the caucuses and reports that straw poll result, if I understand correctly.

Posted by inonit | November 18, 2007 11:59 AM