Rudy's Secret Weapon

It's Mike Huckabee, of course. This seems obvious where Mitt Romney is concerned: Huckabee's been slowly moving into a position to steal at least some of the Mittster's thunder in Iowa (with the aid of a friendly media, of course), and it's easy to imagine a strong Huckabee showing being played as the big story coming out of the caucuses, whether he wins outright or not, which in turn weakens Romney fatally in New Hampshire and lets Rudy slip past him.

But it's worth noting that in this scenario Huckabee probably dooms the Thompson campaign as well. Any Thompson narratives requires a win, and probably a big one, in South Carolina. And if you look at the polls there, Thompson's consistently around 15-20 percent, and Huckabee - who would seem to have natural Palmetto State appeal - is at 5-8 percent. That isn't a big gap, given Huckabee's low profile, and if he's the big story coming out of Iowa, and then New Hampshire is a fight to the death between Romney, Giuliani and McCain, doesn't Huckabee's momentum get concentrated in South Carolina? And doesn't it probably take a lot of votes out of Thompson's pocket, thus delivering the state, perhaps, to Rudy? At which point he coasts to the nomination, names Huckabee his veep, and together they win the general election - at which point Huckabee rips off his mask and reveals that he's really ... Bernie Kerik!

All of this assumes, of course, that none of Giuliani's rivals figure out a way to tear his candidacy to shreds.

Comments

I was with you up to this point:

t which point he coasts to the nomination, names Huckabee his veep, and together they win the general election - at which point Huckabee rips off his mask and reveals that he's really ... Bernie Kerik!

I think you've got the logic just a little wrong. As you say, Romney wins IA, but doesn't get the press bump. New Hampshire is a dogfight.

Then, without any advance notice, two days before the SC primary, Huckabee and Romney stage a press conference. Romney announces that Huckabee has decided to endorse his campaign, as the best option for social conservatives. Huckabee walks up to the platform... and bashes Romney with a STEEL CHAIR!! He clubs him down!! Oh, my god, the blood is everywhere. This is awful...

wait, ohmahgod, that's... that's Rudy Giuliani's music!

And then Huckabee rips off his mask to reveal he's Bernie Kerik.

Posted by DivGuy | November 2, 2007 10:04 AM

I just love all of this commentary that says Huckabee is the best candidate but...

Mark this, Huckabee wins outright.

Posted by Daniel Moughon | November 2, 2007 11:54 AM

This sounds basically right.

There's too many quasi-plausible candidates in the GOP race right now pining for that "true Reagan conservative" mantle while Giuliani looks on.

It's almost a primary within a primary, with the winner getting the prize of being in second place to Rudy.

DU

Posted by The Mechanical Eye | November 2, 2007 12:34 PM

The guy who's dooming the Thompson campaign is Fred Thompson.

Once he's front and center, I don't know how well Huckabee will hold up. He's got a raft of ethics issues from Arkansas and, while he's certainly a nice enough guy and seems sincere when as a conservative talking about about compassion (although moderates certainly have been burned by that before), most of his views represent a brand of extremist conservatism that most American voters want no part of.

And if he does win the nomination, what the GOP will have is ... a candidate who plays really well in the South. Congrats on that.

Posted by Woody Bombay | November 2, 2007 1:37 PM

Could someone ellaborate on the,"raft of ethics issues" Mike Huckabee has in Arkansas?

Posted by KY Farm Girl | November 2, 2007 2:07 PM

Huckabee was a competent governor, doesn't pander as much as most politicians -- say his opponents, can draw Main Street, Church Street, and even Wall Street votes in the primaries and has low negatives.

If Huckabee finally gets started, Rudy will just have to pick up his skirt and get out of the way.

Posted by freelunch | November 2, 2007 2:31 PM

From what I've learned, and I'm checking this out carefully, Mike Huckabee is, by all who know him personally and have worked with him, an honest, decent, sincere, humble, and consistent man, with a sense of humor. There is no "raft of ethics issues", though there is the Dumond rape case he inherited about two months into his governorship. The former governor had commuted this man's sentence. The parole board approved parole, and eventually MO accepted him into their state. Dumond soon raped and murdered a woman there. This was a terrible tragedy. The parole board, not the Governor, approved his parole, but some have said the governor influenced their decision. There were sincere questions honest people had about the case at the time. I don't believe that this determines Governor Huckabee's ethics, but rather his whole career and consistent character as a leader should be taken into account. Others know more about this than me, but I'm so tired of seeing a good and moral man, with excellent judgment, being characterized by whatever part he had in this incident. No one should belittle this tragedy, but people who disagree with him on other issues find it easier to attack him on this.

Posted by willtyndal | November 2, 2007 3:00 PM

Mike Huckabee should not be taken lightly. He is a serious threat to the entire republican field. I believe that he will be the republican nominee. His momentum and fundraising is growing at an incredible rate as well as his web traffic. I guarantee a win in Iowa and the momentum from that will propell him right to the Whitehouse.

Posted by Rena Cook | November 2, 2007 3:34 PM

Huckabee was (is?) a big fan of accepting personal and campaign gifts and perks from corporations and the like. And using state facilities for personal and campaign uses.

And you're right, willtyndal, there are others who know more about the Dumond case than you do. Dumond's was the Arkansas GOP's cause celeb because he went to jail for raping a distant relative of the dreaded Bill Clinton. The thinking was that Clinton had him put away for petty vindictive reasons and the guy was innocent. (Or maybe Arkanasas Republicans just thought female relatives of Clinton deserved to be raped, I don't know.) There were no "sincere questions honest people had," there was only anti-Clinton bloodlust. And Huckabee worked his ass off to ensure the parole board pardoned Dumond. Before he took office as governor, in fact, he promised Dumond's wife he would set the guy free. He was in it up to his eyeballs and his running from the case now is pathetic.

And if you really feel bad that Huckabee's sterling character is being smeared by this incident, and opponents are unfairly mischaracterizing the incident to get him because they disagree on other issues, I have a suggestion: Place a collect call to Michael S. Dukakis, in Brookline Mass. and ask him if he has any pointers for Huckabee. He'll probably accept the charges.

Posted by Woody Bombay | November 2, 2007 3:51 PM

Well, the Dumond case might be relevant to Huckabee's judgment on specific cases or his character, but it's not really the same as the attack on Dukakis -- Dukakis was attacked for a general prison furlough system, and the specific bad results of that program in one case. It wasn't really a character attack, in essence (though it operated that way, to some extent), it was an attack on crime policy.

Posted by The Marquis of Carabas | November 2, 2007 5:37 PM

Marquis,

Yes, I thought about it almost immediately after clicking away from this Web page and realize it isn't a good comparison.

Dukakis was vilified personally for a matter of policy, whereas Huckabee is trying to pass off as a matter of policy something that was, in fact, very personal.

Posted by Woody Bombay | November 2, 2007 6:20 PM

Huckabee is his own secret weapon... and once he is no longer a secret... watch out Rudy. See more here: http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=VerticalDay.Home&l=50F49E7D03868E58F54AA1ED674B0C61

Posted by Kyle B | November 2, 2007 6:36 PM

Marquis,

If the details of the Dumond case are as they've been described in this case, then I think Huckabee is much more at fault than Dukakis was. Dukakis didn't campaign specifically on behalf of Willie Horton, nor did he even establish the furlough policy in the first place (I believe it was a Republican governor who did that.) Yes, the furlough policy turned out to be a bad idea, and you can legitimately criticize him on that basis....but if you're going to criticize him for bad judgment then you ought to criticize Huckabee even more harshly. After all, Huckabee made a point not of defending the rights of prisoners in general but the rights of one particular prisoner who turned out to be a particularly nasty piece of work. which seems like it would certainly call his judgment into question.

Posted by Hector Dauphin-Gloire | November 2, 2007 7:04 PM

Hector, I'm not sure I disagree, I was just pointing out the two cases are quite different. I think "this reflects more poorly on Huckabee than on Dukakis" is reasonable.

As is "it was a weird special case, and is unlikely to do it again, while the furlough thing does seem to have been somewhat emblematic of Dukakis' general approach to crime, though not, perhaps, a policy owned exclusively by him."

Just different.

Posted by The Marquis of Carabas | November 2, 2007 7:40 PM

Here's a funny column on Huckabee that says something about his normalcy level in person.
http://www.goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller

Posted by Lane | November 2, 2007 8:42 PM

I see Huckabee joining up with Mitt, as Huck and Rudy are pretty much polar opposites.

A Romney Huckabee Pres/VP matchup would be great for the Evangelical base and help unify the party, and we'd get the smartest and funniest candidates elected to office!

I've heard Rudy speak, and I found him dull, and I don't think he would do much for America besides continue to try to prove he's the tough guy, like Bush.

Mitt will be constructive from day one.

Posted by Jed | November 2, 2007 9:46 PM

Does it matter that Waynes Dumond's DNA didn't match the DNA from the rape evidence? Why is it never brought out that the lawyer who took over his case on appeal was the judge in his original trial? He took over the case after the DNA tests were done. Dumond paid for the DNA tests himself by suing the Democrat Sheriff because he kept Dumond's severed testicles on his desk as a souvenir. Seems to me that there are alot of people implicated in this tragedy and Governor Huckabee was just trying to do the best with the information he had.

Posted by Jeff | November 3, 2007 10:54 AM

With all the talk about Rudy making New York one of the most safest cities in the U.S., i think sooner or later SOMEONE is going to point that 911 happened on rudy Guiliani's watch. Street crimes down, terrorism WAY up, at least in 2001. I am mystified no one ever grabbed hold of that one.

Posted by monique alponte | November 4, 2007 12:02 PM

Permit a redcoat from the UK to comment on your political process . It would be a catastrophe for the United States if a man who believes that the Lord Jesus is the brother of the Devil and that humanity originated from a planet near a star called Kolob as well as a host of other horrible doctrines was nominated to lead the Republcan Party - I am speaking of Mitt Romney - and to boot he is not in any shape or form a true conservative . Huckabee has a sensible consistent conservatism and an attractive personality which will appeal to people beyond the conservative block .
I sincerely hope and pray that he will do very well in the primaries and so even if Guiliani wins the nomination , he will be forced to pick Huckabee as a conservative southerner to balance the ticket . Such a combination could defeat Hilary Clinton .

Posted by Andrew Price | November 4, 2007 4:03 PM