At the very least, based on the exit polls, Patrick Ruffini's argument to that effect feels a lot more plausible than it did when I first read it a few hours ago.
In part, I was inclined to discount Ruffini's scenario because depended on a Hillary victory in Nevada to kick off her comeback, when this morning the Journal (via Continetti) reported the following:
The all-important Culinary Workers union in Nevada, the next state to vote on Jan. 19, is considering backing Sen. Obama a day after a New Hampshire win, say some high-ranking Democrats. The support of the state's largest union by far would virtually hand him a victory in the labor-dominated caucuses there, Democrats say.
But will they be so quick to jump on the Obama bandwagon if he wins New Hampshire by only a few points?
Update: Or if he (gasp) loses?
I can't believe I'm writing this but I'm actually relieved that she's winning-- so far. Obama scares the hell out of me-- people are going bonkers for him, it's purely a cult of personality, eerily reminiscent of Bubba in '92. Scary stuff.
All along I've been thinking McCain had a better chance against Obama than any of his GOP rivals did, but I'm not sure the lofty elder statesman-schtick that he employed as he stumbled a bit through his victory speech tonight would hold up well against this juggernaut that has as its basis a very revolutionary zeal, energy, and emotion. Mac will have to look more alive than this to get out the votes needed to stop Obama in the general... But if she stops Obama first, I still think McCain can beat her. It could be Clinton/Obama vs. McCain/Romney in the general-- Romney gave an excellent concession speech, the delivery was good, he struck some resonant notes about what hasn't been fixed yet in Washington and why an outsider is needed. One of his best yet.
Posted by MD | January 8, 2008 10:01 PM