McCain Rising

He's up in Michigan, up in South Carolina. In neither case, though, is he over thirty percent. And I continue to think, despite all the talk about Romney being toast if he loses Michigan (which he probably will), that until McCain proves he can break through his current 35 percent ceiling, the Romney campaign ought to assume that the race will be a marathon rather than a sprint, and that even a slew of early-state silver medals (and the media derision that comes with them) could still translate into gold at the end.

Recall that in 2004, John Kerry quickly cemented his status as the Democratic favorite by breaking into the forties and even the fifties in the post-New Hampshire primaries. Similarly, if McCain wins Michigan with a Kerry-style 40 or 45 percent of the vote, then the Romney "Long March" scenario (and the longer-shot Giuliani scenario) start looking like pure fantasy. But so long as he stays within the ceiling he bumped up against in 2000, the race is a long way from over.

(All of this assumes, of course, that Huckabee doesn't break through his current ceiling, but at present that seems even less likely than a McCain breakout.)

Photo by Flickr user Mr. Wright used under a Creative Commons license.

Comments

(All of this assumes, of course, that Huckabee doesn't break through his current ceiling, but at present that seems even less likely than a McCain breakout.)

Well, less likely in Michigan, sure, but much more plausible in the South.

Shouldn't Romney start portraying McCain as a media-created phenomenon, emphasizing the heterodoxies that the "liberal media" loves him for (immigration, campaign finance, etc.)? Republican primary voters eat that stuff up.

At the very least he needs to start using the L word against both McCain and Huck.

Posted by right | January 10, 2008 3:29 PM

McCain inched back towards Bush this morning, as his we-have-to-take-the-fight-to-'em rhetoric has ratcheted up. If he stays on this track, he can kiss the moderates, independents, and most minorities good-bye.
Personally, I think he's going to shoot himself in the foot with this "I could have won this war" stump speech. His internal polling must show him in deep trouble with the base. He's in a horribly tough spot. If he has to win his Republican base on their terms to get the nomination, he'll never make it in the general.
I think he would have been unbeatable if he could have stayed on the "Rumsfeld did it" message; I guess the base wants/needs more assurance that he's true Neocon himself.

Posted by fougasseu | January 10, 2008 4:01 PM

It doesn't necessarily follow that the past is prologue, but the N.H. primary prediction record for Republican nominees is impressive. Since 1948 the eventual Republican nominee has been either the first or second place finisher in the Republican New Hampshire Primary. I am sure there will be a lot of sound and fury between now and the convention, but unless that unbroken record changes in 2008, the Republican nominee is either McCain or Romney.

Just sayin...

Posted by mw | January 10, 2008 4:25 PM

If you're a McCain supporter like me, check out www.fittobepres.com. It's showing McCain in the lead with the most ratings on the Republican side. If you support another candidate, feel free to show it on that site because anyone can rate the candidates.

Posted by Carla | January 10, 2008 4:51 PM

It's easier to crack 35% in a less crowded field. Kerry didn't have this many plausible opponents.

Posted by Shoshana | January 10, 2008 5:35 PM

McCain has rightly convinced a lot of people that he is a man of character and integrity; he will probably win the nomination.

His big problem now is finding a young V.P. to run with who has excellent economic credibility, as it is becoming probable that the economy is verging on a serious recession, the outline of which should be more evident by next November.

McCain himself admits that he is rather unsophisticated on economic issues. Romney is the ablest of all the presidential candidates on economics, though his likability and Mormonism, fair or not, have become a liability, to say nothing of what appears to be McCain's animus toward him.

Posted by Peter Leavitt | January 10, 2008 7:14 PM

McCain wins one election and his arrogance is back, full-blown. I'm sick of his lectures, his patronizing tone, and his claim to be the heir to Ronald Reagan. I watched the debate tonight. The smirk is back. He's unelectable. Ron Paul is a true patriot and a great Republican, he's unelectable. Thompson is a good 'ol boy, also incredibly arrogant and condescending, he's unelectable. Romney is incredibly smart and completely inauthentic, he's unelectable. Rudy, incredibly smart and morally bankrupt, he's unelectable. So we have Huckabee....incredibly smart, authentic, a true patriot, moral, a great Republican, but a Christian. He's unelectable because he's a Christian. That's the new GOP, home of corporate chieftans and crooks like DeLay/Ailes/Abramoff/Limbaugh/Hannity/Rumsfeld and Condi Rice. The new GOP, we're unelectable.

Posted by fougasseu | January 10, 2008 10:34 PM

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