Rally Round Rudy?

One Florida poll has Giuliani clinging to his lead; another has him sinking. Meanwhile, Rick Karlgaard floats a notion:

After tonight, McCain will be coronated by the mainstream media. He is sure to hold his lead as the betting favorite. But watch Giuliani. Here’s a bet I will make with anyone: The two top-rated conservative radio talk hosts, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, will more or less back Giuliani, as Dennis Miller does--explicitly--now. That support will be as key to Giuliani as Oprah Winfrey’s support has been to Obama.

Which is to say, the mainstream media and conventional analysis will be blind to the value of such support--and so, you'll never read about it. But in a tight primary, the Limbaugh-Hannity-Miller factor could make a difference.

In my post yesterday on Mitt Romney's prospects if he loses New Hampshire and Michigan, I envisioned talk radio getting behind him in a big way - as the only alternative to the two heretics, McCain and Huckabee - if he stays viable long enough to make the race a three-man tug-of-war in Florida and beyond. But if Romney collapses instead - if he gets beaten soundly in Michigan (where I had forgotten that Democrats can vote in the GOP primary) and then hammered by both McCain and Huckabee in South Carolina - well, my "Romney's Long March" scenario was predicated on the anti-McCain, anti-Huck voices in the GOP refusing to go gently into the good night, and if Mitt's flatlining by South Carolina it isn't all that implausible to imagine Rush and Hannity trying desperately to perform CPR on Rudy's candidacy. It would be the crowning irony of irony-rich primary season - the "Reagan conservatives" making their last stand around a man whose record is arguably more liberal than anyone else's in the race.

Photo by Flickr user Joe Crimmings used under a Creative Commons license.

Comments

a man whose record is arguably more liberal than anyone else's in the race.

Is this what Goldberg meant by "liberal fascism"?

Posted by JB | January 9, 2008 8:27 AM

Wow, I totally forgot about the Dennis Miller factor. How can 9iu11iani possibly lose with that endorsement? Now just tell me he's got Ron Silver and it's all but over.

Posted by somedude | January 9, 2008 8:42 AM

Do you mean Rally Round Judy? Rudy's political narrative, based on 9/11, which is wearing thin, will be overshadowed by his personal narrative. Limbaugh, Hannity, Ailes, and other chubby white guys may not be bothered by a little foolin' around, and having some estranged children - but millions of women, moderates, independents, and educated Catholic Republicans and all evangelicals will. Quite a large group, don't you think?
McCain can win. Staying in bed with the Ailes/Cheney/Abramoff/Neocon coalition is going to cost the GOP this election.

Posted by fougasseu | January 9, 2008 8:54 AM

I'm surprised that Rudy only 'edged' Ron Paul in his own backyard... Doesn't look good.

Let's face it - Rudy, Romney, McCain are ALL social liberals and will lose the south and midwest. Huckabee is going to take SC (no secret there) and Florida and Michigan is looking good too...

IF Flip Romney loses his own home state of Michigan next Tuesday, he's toast.

Posted by gander | January 9, 2008 8:57 AM

Giuliani has done nothing but campaign in Florida for months. Once Huckabee, McCain, and Romney start courting their natural constituencies in the state, I don't see how Giuliani can hang on.

Posted by right | January 9, 2008 10:09 AM

RUDY is an alternative to GOP heretics?

DENNIS MILLER is a decisive endorsement?

Dude, seriously.

Posted by Justin K. | January 9, 2008 10:41 AM

Hannity will "more or less" endorse Giuliani ? I thought he was already a tireless Giuliani cheerleader.

JT

Posted by Justin Taylor | January 9, 2008 10:49 AM

It's looking very messy. Suppose that Giuliani *does* take Florida - then what? It would allow him to continue, but he's no longer the national frontrunner anyway. If he won Florida we would head into Super Tuesday with at least four candidates who had won a state (remember Romney took WY), none of whom are currently polling above 25% nationally. And while Giuliani has somewhat more money than McCain and Huckabee, he doesn't have enough to do a full-bore media offensive in all of the Super Tuesday states. The California delegates are no longer winner take all. Chances of a convention where no one has a majority of delegates are looking better and better...

Posted by bbartlog | January 9, 2008 11:04 AM

Huckabee's rise has made it very difficult for the GOP to get away with nominating Rudy. Religious right types were always going to be uneasy with him for familiar reasons; but now, for Rudy to win means that he has to vanquish Huckabee, the candidate who represents the religious right. This will be a very bitter pill to swallow, and I wouldn't be surprised if it draws some of them out of the GOP column, especially if the devout, conciliatory Obama is the Democratic nominee.

It was one thing for Rudy to become the nominee by beating Romney, McCain, and Thompson. It's another thing for him to overcome Huckabee, especially since the only way he can probably do that is with the support of the Republican establishment. So it's going to look like the GOP establishment rallied together to put an end to the Huckabee campaign, which is what it in fact will be, to nominate a pro-choice sex pervert, so to speak.

Posted by Jason C. | January 9, 2008 12:26 PM

What's striking to me are the geographic divisions opened up in the GOP this year. Huckabee, the evangelical, seems likely to carry much of the South and the Plains states. Guiliani's brand of culturally libertarian warmongering makes him the favorite in the big, delegate-rich blue states like NY, NJ, and CA. McCain's cranky contrarianism plays well in the Rust Belt, the Southwest, and rural New England. Romney should win the Mormon-occupied territories of the Mountain West and continue to pick up delegates from second place finishes elsewhere.

If they all stay in the race and avoid major implosions, there's no clear path to a majority. While I don't really expect a brokered convention, there may have to be a grand deal after Super Tuesday where the third or fourth place candidate drops out and pledges candidates to one of the top two. Giuliani dropping out and endorsing McCain seems highly plausible to me.

Otherwise, get used to the "Romney wins the silver" motif. If he wins a few big states and finishes second everywhere else, he might win by default.

Posted by LaFollette Progressive | January 9, 2008 12:31 PM

Rudy seems to be gearing up for a Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security post-- see his piece in today's WSJ ("The resilient society: A blueprint for homeland security"). I see McCain-Romney, announcing Rudy as Sec. of Defense, Condi continuing at State, Huck for Dept. of Education...

Posted by MD | January 9, 2008 1:08 PM

I'd be very surprised if Sean Hannity is able to deliver a single vote for anyone receiving his endorsement. Rush Limbaugh is (to my disgust) a genuine titan in the conservative movement, and his role in mediating between the Republican establishment and the grass roots has actually been underestimated; in particular, he has been crucial in steering his listeners away from a succession of heresies: Perot in 1992, Buchanan in 1996, McCain in 2000. By contrast, Hannity lives chiefly off Rush's sloppy seconds (let alone Dennis Miller and his audience of hundreds).

And I can't think of any reason Limbaugh would prefer Guiliani over Romney.

Posted by kth | January 9, 2008 1:19 PM

kth writes: "I can't think of any reason Limbaugh would prefer Guiliani over Romney."

I can think of two -

1. If it appears Romney can't win, Limbaugh would give Giuliani the nod at least as long as it appeared he had a shot.

2. Limbaugh (along with Hannity and Coulter and Miller) is part of the Genocide Wing of the Repiglican Party. They want as many dead Muslims as possible and prefer a candidate who wants the same thing. Giuliani is the Megagenocide candidate.

Of course if McCain wins out Limbaugh will end up publicly supporting him, because in the end Limbaugh is all about Limbaugh. He's a malignant character with no positive principles and no integrity at all. (Which is a 3rd reason for him to find Rudy appealing, since they're similar in that respect.)

Posted by MoeLarryAndJesus | January 9, 2008 2:16 PM

"9iu11iani"?

"Flip Romney"?

"Limbaugh, Hannity, Ailes, and other chubby white guys may not be bothered by a little foolin' around, and having some estranged children..."?

I'm at work right now, and all three of the above comments made me laugh at loud. Great stuff. Thanks guys.

Posted by Marc | January 9, 2008 2:17 PM

Joe Biden: A Poem

While Hillary conjures tears,
Obama delivers feel-special sermons,
and Edwards pretends he's tough,
Joe Biden
goes home,
having received
628 New Hampshire votes.
(Even though he dropped after grabbing
.092
of the Iowa vote.)

But let it be known:
The verbose man with hair plugs from Delaware
delivered the single greatest line of the campaign.
Of Giuliani, he said,
"There's only three things
he mentions in a sentence -- a noun, a verb, and
9/11."

For this, the Chairman
deserves a cheer.
To you, Joe:
Rah!

Posted by Peregrine | January 9, 2008 7:22 PM

I have recently discovered the fun of reading and posting on these sites. However, every once in a while I try to remember that these are real life events taking place with real consequences. I think it is cool that earlier comments have made Marc "laugh out loud" but none of us will be laughing when our taxes go up 30% to support the socialized America that the Democrats are slobbering all over each other to promote. None of us will be laughing when a Democrat appoints two or three ultra liberal Supreme Court justices over the next 4 years. None of us will be laughing when they disband the border patrol and do the humanitarian thing and allow as many foreigners as want to enter our country and drain our resources. And we certainly won't be laughing when the Democrats pull us out of Iraq in defeat and allow every Muslim in the Muslim world that has tried to support democracy to be slaughtered in a radical jihad. I personally don't see anything funny in any of those events and that is where we are heading if the conservatives don't get their heads out of their collective butts and get behind one candidate who has a chance to not only win, but accomplish something good for America when he gets there. The reality is that there are only two real conservatives available, Thompson or Romney. Take your pick and get on board people or get left behind.

Posted by BAB | January 9, 2008 8:39 PM

BAB writes: "None of us will be laughing when a Democrat appoints two or three ultra liberal Supreme Court justices over the next 4 years."

I'll be laughing. I'll especially be laughing at the notion that anyone to the left of Scalia or Thomas qualifies as "ultra liberal."

It's gonna be a real pleasure watching the Edifice Of Stupid that Saint Reagan built get demolished brick by brick.

Posted by MoeLarryAndJesus | January 9, 2008 10:01 PM

BAB - I have a zip code for you, the most expensive zip code in America. 33455. No, that's not Beverly Hills. Beverly Hills, while a disgusting enclave of the Nip 'n Tuck crowd, doesn't make the top 10.
Remember Jupiter Island? Of course you do, where Clinton tripped and hurt his knee. And where the Bush family has been wheeling and dealing for decades.
You need to take the golf cart test. Try Photoshopping various members of the Ruling Class into a golf cart on Jupiter Island. Romney? Looks like a million bucks, doesn't he? Fred? Rudy? Bill Clinton? Vernon Jordan? The only three serious candidates that don't look like members of the Jupiter Island set are Obama, McCain and Huckabee.
Where do war profiteers spend Spring Break? It isn't Cancun. All of those ex-Clinton Administration and ex-Bush Admininstration cronies on all of those boards (e.g., Bechtel, KBR, Halliburton, CACI, Blackwater, and so on) somehow end up on the same golf course with Roger Ailes, Tom DeLay and Rush Limbaugh.
You write about "real life events taking place with real life consequences". The place where real life events take place with real life consequences? That place has a zip code: 33455.

Posted by fougasseu | January 10, 2008 3:31 AM

Good, he is even less electable than a Mormon or a Baptist.

...and that's just funny or pathetic, whichever side you on

Posted by Bound | January 10, 2008 7:34 AM