Romney's Achievement

Yes, he's a native son, for whatever that's worth. But winning Michigan after two consecutive tough defeats, in the teeth of a press corps that adores John McCain and despises him, and in a state that gave McCain an easy win over George W. Bush in 2000, suggests an impressive resilience - both in the man and in his campaign - that will serve him well in what looks like a long hard slog to the convention.

After each GOP primary so far, the winner has faced an immediate test. For Huckabee after Iowa, it was whether his appeal could translate beyond his evangelical base. Two primaries later, the answer seems to be no. For McCain after New Hampshire, it was whether he could use his momentum and what looked liked a favorable schedule to break through his 30-percent ceiling and become the front-runner. After tonight's result, the answer likewise looks like no. Now it's Romney's turn to be tested: Can his Mormon, flip-flopping, starched-shirt northeastern self do well in Dixie? If it can - if he can compete strongly in South Carolina and Florida, and maybe win one of the two - then he'll be off to the races. But the way this campaign has gone so far, I wouldn't bet on it.

Photo by Flickr user Tim Somero used under a Creative Commons license.

Comments

I just have a hard time believing that the media will allow anything to derail their narrative of McCain coming back from political death to win the nomination. I've often said that the media doesn't really have ideologically or partisan biases but narrative biases, bias towards what they believe are moving or compelling stories. We're a storytelling specie; and too often, we want life to have the kind of narrative arcs we expect from drama. When most of us do it, it can lead to pretension or dramatics; when the media does it, it can have bigger consequences.

Posted by Freddie | January 15, 2008 9:40 PM

I dunno, I think that from a sheer story perspective, "Humanoid pod person wins GOP nomination" is a pretty compelling storyline.

Wasn't there a "Twilight Zone" about that?

Posted by Woody Bombay | January 15, 2008 10:51 PM

I hope he wins the nomination. Because there's no way he'll beat any of the dems in the general election.

As for beating the media, it can certainly be done. Despite everything the MSM still can't control election results. Look at Hillary's upset victory in New Hampshire from last week. McCain has huge flaws of his own, and if Romney keeps on winning states and delegates despite a hostile media--well, the media is just going to have to deal with it.

Posted by Korha | January 15, 2008 11:37 PM

I think the Romney win means that Huckabee will do better on Saturday, maybe even win it. That means everyone would then compete vigorously for Florida. But I agree, that Romney winning either SC or FL is far from certain.

Posted by Alex Chediak | January 16, 2008 12:04 AM

You guys are forgetting NV. If I recall correctly, NV is actually awarding more delegates than SC -- and Mitt has pulled out of SC and FL to focus on MI, and will likely shift his focus to NV now instead of heading to SC.

Mitt likely wins in NV. And he might get a bounce from MI that enables him to finish a respectable 3rd in SC (which is fine, if it looks like he conceded the state -- both McCain and Huck have 3rd-place finishes in states they conceded).

After MI and NV wins, Mitt could make a push in FL, where it's a four-way tie right now. He could possibly win -- and should at least finish tight in the pack.

Heading in to Feb 5th, he could possibly look like the most consistently strong candidate. And he'll play fairly well throughout the West. Oh, and don't forget the $$$ advantage.

Personally, I'm an Obama supporter -- but I'm watching the GOP race, and I think Romney has the inside track.

Posted by Jason | January 16, 2008 10:25 AM

It seems to me that Romney has the inside track by virtue of being the party establishment's candidate. This was enough to get Bush nominated in 2000, despite nobody outside of Texas having heard of the guy. What is noteable today is how weakened the party establishment is, that we are even having this discussion.

Posted by Richard Hershberger | January 16, 2008 10:53 AM

Don't you hate it when Dick Morris is right? He's been saying for months that the candidates with the most money will win. He's been calling Romney vs. Clinton for quite some time.
After all, why do they call it the GOP Establishment and the Democratic Establishment?
"Establishment" = Money
Read Buchanan on "Sub-Prime America", and weep.

Posted by fougasseu | January 16, 2008 12:08 PM

I can only hope that Michigan is an abberation in the eventual demise of Mitt Romney's campaign. Instead of Michigan voters looking at the candidates in terms of the greater threat (that of the Dems winning the White House next year), they voted for a candidate who is absolutely unelectable. But then again, of the states that have had primaries, only Michigan voters have bought Romney's pandered, tailored stump. Isn't amazing how he can be such a chameleon, no matter what state he is in? How does anyone know what this guy really stands for? I'd be much more worried if I didn't think that voters not from his home state will see through his garbage, and reject him, just as voters in Iowa and NH did in previous weeks.

Posted by Publius | January 16, 2008 2:14 PM