The Huckabee Fade

Henry Payne reports:

Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research is running tracking polls starting today and has McCain up six points over Romney with Paul/Rudy/Huckabee in a distant tie for third.

Okay, so maybe Michigan isn't such favorable ground for Huckabee after all. (Too many Catholics, perhaps?) And if he fades to a "distant" third, I really don't see how he rebounds to win South Carolina. What's less clear, though, is whether a Huck fade helps Romney or McCain ...

Update: On the other hand, we have this.

Comments

Nothing very complicated here. Huckabee has captured the hearts of the social conservatives, aka evangelical Protestants. Wherever there's lots of them--in large parts of the South (e.g., SC, Ga.), smaller parts of the Midwest (e.g., Iowa)-- there are lots of votes for Huckabee.
But also, his vote doesn't seem to extend very far beyond this base of support.

Posted by Nosecounter | January 11, 2008 5:30 PM

Reality check time, folks. I'm a Catholic and I support Huckabee. So do many of my Catholic family members and friends. His pro-life position and economic populism are far more consistent with Catholic moral and social teachings than Rudy Guiliani, the thrice married, pro-gay, pro-abortion "Catholic." Plus, EWTN did a show about him on Raymond Arroyo's The World Over and were plugging him bigtime to the millions of Catholics who watch that show. Look for Catholics to rally behind him.

Posted by John | January 11, 2008 8:31 PM

Perhaps voters are starting to tire of his repertoire of jokes and one-liners and realize aside from being funny, there isn't much behind the Court Jester routine that actually qualifies him to be President.

Like Huckabee, I am Baptist but I am also intelligent enough to know that no matter how many pastors try to sell me on him because he is “one-of-us”, the guy simply is NOT qualified to be the leader of the free world. America faces perilous times ahead and we need an experienced, intellectual, and articulate leader. The only one I can find is Romney. His credentials are impeccable and his life is inspirational. I’m not looking for someone to share my religion. I am looking for someone who shares my values and would be a leader that America can be proud of. I can’t imagine ever being ashamed of a President Romney traveling abroad to represent our nation. I can’t say that about Huckabee.

Huckabee likes to say he reminds you of the guy you work with and he is a common man but I would argue that given the challenges we face, we need far more than a common man, we need an uncommon man.

Posted by Ci2Eye | January 11, 2008 10:25 PM

Michigan is going to be a pleasant surprise for backers of Rev Huckabee. Maybe he will 'lose' to McCain but it will be so close that his apparent low standing will give him a huge 'expectations' victory.

Michigan is stuffed full of southern folks who moved to Detroit (as JohnnyCash says, 'workin' on the assembly line') and retained their culture. George Wallace won primaries there twice ('68 and '72) on the strength of Repubs crossing into the Dem campaign.

Unless Fred can stop him in SCarolina, Huck is a truely major player in the Repub Convention. And if McCain or Romney beats Huck in the smoke-filled-rooms the ire of the old-confederacy based 'values voters' will very likely fuel a 3d party run.

So with a recession in '08 and a rump-Repub third party on the Presidential section of the ballot--there is really only one question: How many Repub Congressmen and Senators are going to be looking for work in Jan '09?

I could almost believe in a god!!!

Posted by JohnMcC | January 12, 2008 2:54 PM