The Huckabee Strategy

So far as I can tell, his campaign is calculating that it needs to do well (second place, ideally) in Michigan, and that South Carolina is a must-win; thus they’re competing in both states, but betting more heavily on the second one. You can see why they’re thinking that way, but after watching last night’s debate it occurred to me that South Carolina might actually be tougher ground for Huckabee to fight on. Already, McCain’s New Hampshire momentum has carried him out to a lead in S.C., and this time around he’s got the state’s GOP establishment in his corner; moreover, if Huckabee more or less concedes first place in Michigan to the Senator, a win up north will give McCain yet another momentum boost going into South Carolina, with only a few days between the two primaries for Huckabee to make up the lost ground. And in Michigan, Huckabee has Romney as his foil, which is more or less ideal for his purposes; in the Palmetto State, as we saw last night, he’ll have another good ol’ southern boy, Fred Dalton Thompson, trying to tear pieces out of his hide. When you consider Michigan’s economic woes, McCain’s support for cap-and-trade, the state’s considerable evangelical population, and the current polls – which place Huck as close to first there as he is in South Carolina – you could make a case that the Huckabee campaign should be going all out up north, both because an outright win might be attainable and because only with an outright win can they hope to hold off Thompson and leapfrog past McCain down south.

The counter-argument, I suppose, is that Michigan’s open primary, will all those independents crossing over, more or less guarantees McCain a win there however Huck decides to play it. But one of the premises of Huckabee’s campaign is that his message can bring independents to the polls as well - the socially-conservative, economically-anxious, Sam's Club sort of swing voters, that is. It seems like Michigan would be as good a place as any to put that theory to the test.

Comments

I don't think Michigan is a must win for anyone. At this point 3rd place is rough for whoever gets it. The nation has been through this before with McCain. McCain won't deliver in the Republican primary ballot box.

I think there would have been more advantages for Huckabee skipping New Hampshire and going to Michigan. I don't see any advantages to Huckabee if he were to make a last stand in Michigan. Romney should do better than expected there because last minute breaks should favor him; he has organization and pedigree there.

Posted by M.Z. Forrest | January 11, 2008 10:49 AM

I think Romney's "pedigree" isn't resonating in Michigan. He left there a long time ago and he hasn't looked back.

Posted by MoeLarryAndJesus | January 11, 2008 12:21 PM

You can really see the outlines of this race beginning to solidify for McCain. He looks like he's headed to victory in Michigan, and if he does he'll probably take SC. And then he'll have three solid wins in a row, and it all begins to look inevitable. The supposedly "wide-open" GOP nomination could be settled a lot more quickly than the two-scorpions-in-a-bottle death match the Democratic race is turning out to be.

Posted by Jasper | January 11, 2008 2:05 PM

Six months ago it appeared HRC would effortlessly capture the DEM nomination, and would enter the general election with enormous momentum. The GOP, having watched their candidates pummel each other, would be damaged and divided in November.
Now, we could have a complete reversal of fortunes if the GOP would rally round McCain and get back to figuring out how to capture the White House.

Posted by fougasseu | January 12, 2008 11:57 AM