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Veepstakes

02 Jan 2008 10:44 am

webb.jpg

Noah Millman and Reihan discuss. On the question of the wisdom of McCain picking Huckabee as his running mate (versus, say, Pawlenty, as Reihan suggests), I'm of two minds; it all depends (as Noah notes, while making the pro-Huckabee case) on the extent to which Huck self-immolates in the process of losing the primary fight, and the extent to which his large-and-growing enemies list within the party makes him look like a liability, rather than an asset, when it comes to rallying the base. On the possibility of Obama-Webb, though, I agree completely with Noah, that in picking a running mate, Obama should worry more about balancing his cultural liabilities and foreign-policy liabilities than his lack-of-DC-experience liabilities:

What Obama needs to do is reassure people who are nervous about voting for a black man, nervous about voting for a Harvard man, nervous about voting for a man who grew up in Hawaii and came up in politics from Chicago’s South Side ... Moreover, Obama – who has run his primary campaign as if he intends to draw a contrast on foreign policy in the general election – needs to reassure voters that he is ready to be Commander in Chief. He’s had no relevant experience whatsoever in that particular area.

This calculus leads almost inexorably to Webb:

Webb covers both bases, without overshadowing the nominee. Webb is a guy who wrote a book about his pride in his Scots-Irish heritage. He campaigned – and won – in Virginia on a platform of economic populism and protectionism (whereas Obama is a free-trader who seems basically comfortable with the globalist consensus on economic matters). Webb would substantially respond to any antipathy by certain voters to voting for a man who could simultaneously represent the lumpen and the uber of our social order.

Moreover, Webb is a former Reagan Secretary of the Navy who left the GOP for two reasons: because he thinks the GOP’s economic policy is detrimental to working people, and because he was disgusted by the Iraq War. He has far more credibility as a spokesman for a change in foreign policy than a John Kerry or even a Wesley Clark. Inasmuch as he and Obama see eye-to-eye – and they don’t, precisely, though I think they do more than they don’t; Webb, as a former Navy man, is no Buchananite neo-isolationist – Webb’s presence on the ticket substantially bolster’s Obama’s critique of the direction of our foreign policy. This becomes especially important if he’s up against McCain, but it would also be extremely useful against Romney or Giuliani.

The best case against the Webb-for-Veep meme (expressed here in vlog form by Matt) is that idiosyncratic, cocksure figures - particularly ones who aren't career politicians - make lousy second bananas. I can easily imagine a Vice President Webb being a headache for an Obama Administration, and I can imagine Webb going crazy spending four-to-eight years in the Veep straitjacket, and regretting ever signing up for the job. But that's a danger that you worry about after you win an election: I don't think it changes the calculus that makes Webb a natural fit for an Obama campaign gearing up to spend six months duking it out with the GOP.

Photo by Flickr user Marcn used under a Creative Commons license.

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Comments (41)

If McCain wins nomination, he should pick Kay Bailey.

If Obama wins nomination, he should pick Biden.

As of now, the best running mate for Obama, should he win the nomination, is Joe Biden. There've been times I've wondered if Biden's ego would allow but I think it would. His foreign policy credentials perfectly balance Obama. Moreover, God forbid anything happened to Obama, Biden could instantly step into the Oval Office.

Terrible picture of Webb - it makes him look like a plump Bob Roberts.

I've thought that Sam Nunn would be a good VP pick for Obama. Nunn has been out of circulation for a while, but he would appear to have nearly all of the virtues of Webb with fewer of the liabilities. Nunn, like Cheney, also would almost certainly not plan to run for President later on.

I agree with Kay Bailey Hutchinson as the VP for the GOP in almost any scenario. The press will skewer the GOP ticket if it has two white males, unless Edwards gets the Dem nomination.

Immigration would be a huge problem for a McCain-Huckabee ticket, and it's easy to see someone like Hillary getting to their right on the issue.

I'm firmly in the Obama-Biden camp. Nunn isn't a bad call either though.

Isn't Brownback far more likely than Huckabee? Also a bona fide social conservative, and he _endorsed_ McCain. Plus, he seems less flaky than Huckabee, albeit less charismatic, too (but charisma can cut a few different ways with a VP, not all of them good-- and McCain's decently charismatic himself, at least some of the time).

I agree that Webb would be an exciting pick, and that's a great point about how he balances out the ticket culturally/socio-economically. But I could see him turning down the job for precisely the reasons you cite. Biden's less exciting, but also seems more likely, especially after the campaign he's run so far-- not to mention all the positive press when Obama picks the guy who once called him "clean" and "articulate." Obama's defense of Biden was probably his second-best debate moment (after "Well, Hillary, I look forward to you advising me as well," of course).

Jeepers, you've been linking to us over at TAS a lot lately. So, thanks.

Re: Webb: I find it slightly easier to imagine him accepting the job of Vice President than I do imagining him sticking around as a Senator for years and years. Which straightjacket is tighter for a guy like Webb, I wonder?

Mark Warner brings almost everything that Webb brings, except the military background -- which I grant you is a big "except." But Warner is a proven fundraiser and campaigner, and is definitely ready to be a team player.

The downside for Democrats is that Mark Warner is looking very strong to take the VA Senate seat vacated by Republican John Warner, and picking him for VP will make that Senate race substantially harder for Democrats to win.

I always thought that Dodd would be a better fit for Obama. Smart, progressive, experienced, solid.

Biden's campaign has been all: "The other candidates are all high on crack." He seems to be too much of a limelight-hog.

Plus Obama-Dodd sounds better than Obama-Biden.

Webb would have his advantages, but the Dems need to rack up as many Senate seats as they can this term and Webb stepping down might allow his VA seat to fall back in the R column (after whatever interim figure Kaine appoints. What's VA law on this?)

That said, Webb would add some nice populist heat to Obama's cool, and put VA more in play.

Obama-Edwards, would, I think be a great ticket. And Obama-Dodd has a lot of appeal for me too.

And for Pete's sake leave Warner alone. VA is set to very possibly have 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor...very desirable for those of us doing what we can to make the Old Dominion a little more purple.

Biden meanwhile, as I perceived in a moment of clarity the other day while daydreaming in my cubcle -- and as many here say -- would be the best balance to Obama's perceived liabilities...very much the Bush/Cheney relative experience dynamic (but of course, without 99% of the evil).

Dodd = too northeasterny. Obama's already going to have that liberal-elite perception problem if he gets nominated. The Nunn suggestion is interesting...hadn't thought of that one.

No Dodd, No Webb writes: "The Nunn suggestion is interesting...hadn't thought of that one."

I hope no one else does, either. Talk about the turd in the punch bowl.

Re: Immigration would be a huge problem for a McCain-Huckabee ticket, and it's easy to see someone like Hillary getting to their right on the issue.

Immigration will not play much of a role in the election, no matter how much passion about it is roiling Fly-Over Land. Both the Left and the Right agree that it's too dangerous to open that Pandora's Box. The GOP will go with their tried-and-true demagoguery about God, Gays, and Guns. The Dems will trot out the latest version of Soak The Rich. They'll both mumble platiutudes on immigration and tiptoe carefully away from the issue.

That is a very scary picture.

If it's true that history repeats itself, I can see Webb doing a fine job playing Andrew Johnson to Obama's Lincoln, right down to the surly alcoholism.

Lampwick: one worries that Webb might play Preston Brooks to somebody's (Lindsey Graham's?) Charles Sumner...

NDNW -

That whole handgun-smuggled-into-the-Senate incident involving Webb's aide has never been explained, has it?

I think your VP nominee should be someone who no one would rather have as president than you.

So for me, that leaves Biden, Dodd, Webb, and especially Warner out of the mix for me as Obama choices.

It's a shame that the portrait of the Democratic race has been whittled down to one between three people who aren't qualified. Objectively I think of Obama himself as a good person to fill the VP slot, behind a Biden, Dodd, or Warner.

Remember the ghost of Lieberman. He was a great pick on paper at the time, but he turned out to be a horrid campaigner. I don't see Webb performing well during the campaign. Biden seems like a good fit. What about Evan Bayh?

Webb...nope. Too much of a hot head. His unpolitic remarks would be in the news way too much.

Webb is the guy. Even his purported "hot-headedness" balances Obama's cool. An Obama-Webb ticket would be the first one in my voting lifetime (which started with Carter-Mondale) in which I would have a real emotional investment in winning.

I wouldn’t be a huge fan of picking Webb. Here are the four big problems:

1. The media will play up the contrasts. Military service versus Harvard. Tough general election victor versus cakewalk. No-nonsense Iraq War positions versus wiggle room. It will be like Kerry-Edwards all over again.

2. The media will also focus on a major commonality between the two: that they are both Senators who have not completed their first terms in office yet and have limited experience.

3. Extremely different styles. Both candidates have very personalized rhetorical styles and campaign themes. It is a difficult to imagine a single campaign message that both can sound natural delivering.

4. Do Democrats really want to push a meme implying that service in the Department of Defense civilian leadership during a Republican administration is more valuable experience than such service during a Democratic one?

Democrats should also be a little concerned about creating an open seat in Virginia.

Better VP picks would be:
Tim Kaine: Term limited anyway. Has similar campaigning style to Obama and won’t overshadow him. Lifelong Democrat from purple state. Early Obama endorser.

Ted Strickland: Again, similar campaign message to Obama’s. Helps Obama in Ohio, which, by some arguments, is the only state that matters. Won’t overshadow.

Kathleen Sebelius: Female running mate smoothes things over with frustrated Hillary supporters. Popular governor of blood-red state helps Obama target swing voters.

I don't think Webb is a bad choice, but man, is he independent. For me, the thought of the picture of Webb, His Wife, Barack and Michelle Obama when Webb is first announced....dare I say it...Webb will be the only White person in the picture. To me, it would say so much about America...but, would it scare certain parts of America?

Webb is NOT controllable....so, anyone thinking about him needs to think about that.

Webb doesn't have the personality of a "second banana", and wouldn't be a good Veep pick for anyone. The same can be said of Biden (though perhaps to lesser, but still key, degree). Dodd might make sense, but that depends greatly on the rules involved in replacing him in the Senate. If Rell fills it with an Republican for 2 years, he's out.

Sebelius makes the most sense to me. But if not her ... anyone know anything about Bredesen? Should Bob Graham be brought out of retirement?

Unlike others, I LOVE this picture of Webb. It points out that ' Don't $*&# with me' demeanor that just oozes from him and often left me cracking up as I watched some of his exchanges on tv.

Is there a reason why Senator Conrad from ND can't be a VP consideration? Voted against the war from the beginning. I really like that..... it is seems consistent with Obama stand against the war from the beginning.

The only really good VP candidate for Obama would be Admiral William Adama, of the Battlestar Galactica. An Obama/Adama ticket would give us all a positive hope for the future...free from Cylon tyranny. Plus, I double-dog-dare anyone to look into that craggy face and call them weak on Defense.

Here's an out of the box pick for the D's: this guy. Former Navy admiral, offers a good critique of Iraq, white ethnic, low key, not a career politician, very interested in domestic issues. He has some of the positive attributes of Webb, but without some of the negatives (in particular, Webb can come across as a loose cannon).

Webb's big plus is that he's a former Republican, which could be huge.

Sure, Sestak's name should be in the mix. Highest-ranking veteran ever to serve in Congress. Good on core Democratic issues. A new face. From a swing state. It's surprising he doesn't get included in more of these discussions.

Tom Kean!
After Bush-Rove-Cheney, for Obama to pick a decent Republican as VP would really signal an end to partisan poisoning of the national body politic. Plus, as 9-11 commission co-chair, would bring national security credibility Giuliani only wishes he had.

Nunn is a complete non-starter for the current Democratic party (he'd work for a Republican presidential nominee seeking a bipartisan bridge, though):

1. Too old (he'd be older than Reagan was when he was inaugurated)
2. Too out of circulation - the only circulation he's having is the wrong kind - with Bloomberg, and he's said he would refuse a VP tap
3. Has an ego the equal of Webb, how quick we forget (he was willing to throw a new Democratic President under a bus in 1993)
4. Is wrong on gays in the military in the eyes of key activists (compared to Webb)

It will likely be Webb or Clark, if Obama makes it. Biden would be better served as Secretary of State - and Delaware has a Democratic governor to appoint a Democratic replacement. (No Democratic senator likely to be replaced by a Republican will be permitted to serve in any upcoming Democratic presidential administration. Period. Unless the Democrats get over 60 seats in the Senate.)

Gary Hart. He's good on policy, brings experience to the table, and he doesn't open a seat in Congress. Rather Cheney-esque, but it works for me.

What about Ed Rendell/Bill Richardson? Part of the questions surrounding Obama's "experience" issue rely on his lack of executive experience. Granted, this won't play much if McCain is the republican nom, but if Romney or Guiliani somehow survives, a governor with a democratic background would play well for Barack.

Any vice presidential pick should be (1) someone that people are immediately comfortable with as a potential president, which usually means someone who has already been thought of in presidential terms in their own right; and (2) someone whose selection reinforces the dominant message of the overall campaign, by reinforcing the candidate's strengths and reassuring supporters of the long-term consistency and stability of the team. If there are multiple people who satisfy the above criteria, other factors such as ability to help in specific states, etc., can be considered. But you do not nominate someone for VP who would never have been considered for president, simply because they are helpful in one state. As Gerald Ford reportedly said in rejecting the idea of Ohio Gov. Jim Rhodes for VP, even though that would have locked down the GOP nomination for Ford: "In this business, sometimes you have to be responsible."

I'm surprised no one is mentioning the prominent and popular Democratic governors of Western states-- in particular, Gov. Ritter of Colorado. He has achieved a lot with the state budget since being elected in a landslide last year. He and his wife were Catholic missionaries in Africa before he entered politics. I think he'd be perfect on Obama's ticket-- he would not overshadow Obama with an outsize personality, and would be effectively groomed as a successor. I don't understand all this talk about picking someone who is too old to have any interest in being president; isn't part of the point to have a successor who gets elected after your own two terms and carries on your ideals?

Nunn? Yuck! Anyway, I've been pushing Obama/Webb ever since it became clear that Gore-bama wasn't in the cards. Great ticket.

I love Biden, but can Obama really campaign on change with such an establishment dude? Better to make him Secy of State. Which he'd totally rock at, by the way.

As the race for the nomination closes, Obama seems to have the edge. so, to think about a veep may not be out of line. a couple of sugesstions..Obama/Nunn the former GA senator has foreign policy depth he needs and the beloved GA senator could lean the state for Obama..if he supported War he could be out. Obama/Webb would provide a running mate who did not support war..a popular VA senator helps put VA in Dem bracket..may not be able to provide Obama with any much needed foreign policy depth.

As the race for the nomination closes, Obama seems to have the edge. so, to think about a veep may not be out of line. a couple of sugesstions..Obama/Nunn the former GA senator has foreign policy depth he needs and the beloved GA senator could lean the state for Obama..if he supported War he could be out. Obama/Webb would provide a running mate who did not support war..a popular VA senator helps put VA in Dem bracket..may not be able to provide Obama with any much needed foreign policy depth.

As the race for the nomination closes, Obama seems to have the edge. so, to think about a veep may not be out of line. a couple of sugesstions..Obama/Nunn the former GA senator has foreign policy depth he needs and the beloved GA senator could lean the state for Obama..if he supported War he could be out. Obama/Webb would provide a running mate who did not support war..a popular VA senator helps put VA in Dem bracket..may not be able to provide Obama with any much needed foreign policy depth.

How about Sen Bill Nelson of FLA for veep? He keeps the Sunshine State in play, has a strong record on defense and veteran affairs, a Yale degree, and he was an astronaut.

Do tickets really need to be balanced? Clinton (Bill) gambled in 1992 that the answer was "no", and he was proved right.

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