Per Marc's excellent question, I really don't know how the Clinton campaign should have gone about blunting Obama's rise last fall. I do know, however, that concentrating, Giuliani-style, on her Texas-and-Ohio firewall to the exclusion of what looks like a winnable Wisconsin race is a lousy way to blunt his momentum right now.
« Roger's Version | Main | Declare Yourself » Advising Hillary14 Feb 2008 12:19 pm Comments (12)
The Clinton campaign is not focusing on Tex/Ohio to the exclusion of Wisconsin. Hillary was supposed to holding an event there today, and several more between now and Tuesday. Chelsea and Bill are also making appearances. I think they may have been considering ignoring Wisconsin, but they've apparently reversed themselves, given the closeness in the polls, and their need for every possible delegate. 
Well, their dirty secret is that they campaigned hard in Maine and Virginia, too. Obama has been organizing in Wisconsin for a year, while Hillary just airlifted in her Iowa field director, apparently thinking that because she happens to have been born in Madison she can set up a whole infrastructure in a few days. It doesn't work that way.
I just want her to go away already. Can we launch her into space or something? Please? I suppose this is what they call 'Clinton fatigue', and I started out this race supporting her.
What they needed to do: 1. Vote against the Iraq War. This single thing is the reason she isn't the nominee by acclimation. 2. If she voted in favor of the Iraq War, lead large protests against it or do some other act of penance that involves taking a political risk, not simply claiming that she was right all along but the Bush Administration screwed it up. 3. Don't be so overconfident. Apparently they spent like drunken sailors and had few contingency plans. They expected they would just win all the primaries. 4. Anticipate Obama. Again, this gets back to the war. Her war vote left an opening for an anti-war candidate. Edwards couldn't fill it because he voted for the thing to. Obama was thus entirely anticipable. One of the things that stood out in one of Penn's memos is where he said "nobody thinks Hillary would have actually gone to war with Iraq if she was President". That expresses it perfectly-- a campaign that had no idea what an important issue this was to the Democratic base and therefore couldn't figure out that this guy who opposed the war from the start was going to be a significant challenger. 5. Figure out Bill's role in advance. This is tricky. On the one hand, she clearly wants people who liked the 8 years of Bill's administration to think of her administration as something of a restoration. Still, she had to be her own candidate. I sympathize with her on this one to a great extent-- it's very difficult to strike the right balance. But having Bill go out and attack Obama all the time, suppressing records of what she did when she was in the White House, taking credit for everything that happened in the Clinton Administration, etc., blurred the lines. What she needed to do, in retrospect, was say very clearly that she was the candidate, not Bill, that while Bill would be an advisor, he would be one of many, that she had her own program (and in fact objected to some things that Bill did), and that while she would be drawing on her experience in the Clinton Administration, she had her own views on governance. And then keep Bill's role to giving generic speeches, fundraising, and meeting people. No talking to the press- she'll do that, or her campaign staff. 6. Be a bit less like Bush in terms of bending the rules. On the one hand, Democrats don't want people to be patsies during elections-- Gore and Lieberman got criticized for that in 2000. On the other hand, it's different when you are playing ruthlessly with other Democrats. The Florida, Michigan, and superdelegate things, no mater what the technical rules say, are things that are very easily spun as playing unfair and disenfranchising Democrats, and Democrats have a hair-trigger for those things right now. 7. Stay away from Obama's race. Period. Every time a surrogate brought it up, it backfired (just as it backfired when Hillary's opponents brought up her gender). The temptation was too great, and her surrogates really hurt her by harping on those issues. (Similarly, conservative Israel-supporting surrogates didn't help things with e-mail campaigns either.)
Dilan, it would be polite to answer a question or two over in the (long-winded, yes) "Marry Him" thread if you get a chance. Thanks!
I think taking a hit out on Bill about six months ago would have been perfect. Then she gets the best of everything - nostalgia for the 90's, sympathy as the grieving widow. The Bill couldn't have been out of control for a couple of weeks in South Carolina, and there wouldn't be the questions about who would be in charge. Ok, that was entirely sarcastic, and I don't wish the pain of losing a spouse or parent on anyone. It is tough being the incumbent when the economy is in shambles and there is an unpopular war going on - even though she isn't in charge. People want more drastic change than she offers, since she has been in our living rooms for the last fifteen years. It isn't fair, and she would be an exceedingly competent President, but I don't see how in these times she competes with Obama.
Marquis, I generally let threads die when they fall off the front page. Too much trouble to chase them down.
No problem, but dropping a rather insulting "do you know anyone who goes to college?" and then vanishing looked out of character and not precisely in the spirit of friendly discussion of the issues.
Marquis: There's a hundred and something posts on that thread. I am sure the issues will recur-- Ross seems to like blogging on these issues and when he does, the cast of characters seem to come out.
I think Dilan's right-- Hillary, like John Kerry, simply cannot shake the fact that she voted for the war. That is really the only difference between her and Obama, policy-wise, if this were a truly race-blind election process. And it's the reason why she's hurting. That's also why John McCain may have to tone down some of the rhetoric about staying in Iraq for a hundred years. Even staunch conservatives are divided over whether we ought to be meddling in other countries' affairs, and questioning the wisdom of trying to establish constitutional democracies in the desert...
Clinton has taken Kentucky and Obama is right there in Oregon. http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/primary.wrap/index.html If you’re tired of waiting around for those super delegates to make a decision already, go to LobbyDelegates.com and push them to support Clinton or Obama If you haven't done so yet, please write a message to each of your state's superdelegates at http://www.lobbydelegates.com Obama Supporters: Sending a note to current Obama supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Clinton supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Obama, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Obama. It's that easy... Clinton Supporters too …. ! It takes a moment, but what's a few minutes now worth to get Clinton in office?! Those are really worth ! Sending a note to current Clinton supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Obama supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Clinton, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Clinton. It's that easy...
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An even lousier way to blunt his momentum would be if she'd just die already.
Posted by Bill | February 14, 2008 12:48 PM