In the aftermath of his impressive win in L. Frank Baum's home state - and Minnesota and North Dakota besides - this seems like an opportune to time to link to Russell Arben Fox's meditation on Obama's Kansas stop-off, the first visit to that state by a presidential candidate in 44 (!) years.
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Obama, Prairie Populist?
06 Feb 2008 11:13 am
Comments (12)
the first visit to that state by a presidential candidate in 44 (!) years
Shouldn't that alone be enough to explain his win?
Fox is a Democrat, so it's understandable that he left out the adjective "Democratic." Some of us remember that there was a Kansan at the top of the Republican ticket in 1996, and he did visit Kansas. I'm relatively confident that both Bushes visited as well. Finally, I'd note that no one visited for the primary season for a long time because Kansas didn't have a primary. This year Kansas did/will have a caucus, so there was reason to visit.
Thanks for the plug and link, Ross. I'm trying to think further beyond just Obama in the prairie states (though that's not insignificant), and put all of last night into some perspective; my first stab at it is here, if anyone is interested.
Some of us remember that there was a Kansan at the top of the Republican ticket in 1996, and he did visit Kansas. I'm relatively confident that both Bushes visited as well.
Thomas, maybe everything I've read about it (from Kansas newspapers and sources) have gotten it wrong; I guess it wouldn't surprise me too much. But still a campaign visit is the sort of thing that sticks in your head, and if the newspapers' stories are wrong, you'd figure plenty of people would have corrected them. Of course Dole spent a fair amount of time in Kansas, and no doubt both Bushes (heck, and maybe Reagan and/or Ford) visited our fair state. But are you certain that Dole, as candidate, actually made a campaign stop in Kansas? And the Bushes, as candidates, did too? That's the sort of visit my post was about, and that's what is significant about Obama's visit.
I think Obama's going to run into a big problem in Ohio. The problem's name: Ted Strickland. Strickland is the white, 67-yr.-old popular Democratic governor who is in Clinton's pocket. Clinton added $225,000 to his campaign coffers.
He's very Clintonesque, popular in rural areas and in small towns. He runs a fairly tight operation statewide. He'd be a very legit candidate for a VP spot.
Dole gave his senate resignation speech from Russell, didn't he? I seem to recall another event in Russell, with Kemp, around the time of the convention. The Bushes have always done campaign fundraisers in Johnson County, KS, typically hosted by the Hall family. Whether that counts as a "campaign stop" is hard to say. In my experience, Republican campaign stops are a lot more like Republican fundraisers, and Democratic campaign stops are something quite a bit different.
fougasseu
Wasn't Tom Vilsack in Clinton's pocket too. I seem to recall that Obama defeated his machine handily. Which is not to say that Ohio won't be a real test, but it does come after a series of states likely to offer him big wins.
I mean Nebraska is essentially identical to Kansas and he may win Maryland by a South Carolina like margin. Which in the end seems to be Obama's strategy. His wins tend to be bigger than her wins and that will eventually net him the delegates he needs. For instance, he will lose Texas but will win the Austin area by a super-majority.
Clinton may win Ohio, but if nothing really unexpected happens in February, she is really going to have to win Ohio - and maybe by a significant amount (if Obama gets 40%+ he could keep the delegate margin relatively close). Strickland has only been Gov. for a year, so I doubt that his operation is that amazing already (before 2006, I seem to recall the Dem operation as being sort of pathetic in Ohio). I would tend to think that the demographics favor Clinton a bit, but after MO, which is probably the closest state to Ohio that has voted so far, I'm not so sure.
Strickland was the first Democratic elected governor in Ohio in 16 years. He beat a rising star of the Republican Party, an african-american candidate named Ken Blackwell. He won by a large margin.
I hope ikl is right about Ohio. I do think Strickland could be a serious problem for Obama. I image we'll start seeing complimentary pieces on ABC floating Strickland as a VP candidate for Hillary, now with Stephanopoulos' firmly in control of their campaign coverage.
Huckabee, McCain, and Paul are all visiting KS in advance of Saturday's Republican caucus.
Kansas is now on the map!
(Just kidding.)
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Interesting post.
I think one of the stories that has gotten lost in the media's obsessive racialization of this contest is that regionalism seems to have been at least as powerful a force.
Barack Obama is a midwesterner by temperament. There is strong evidence - look at any map of Dem results - that he is catching on with far more support in the midwest than in the east and west.
Posted by DivGuy | February 6, 2008 12:30 PM