On the heels of my colleague Josh Green's irresponsible speculations, Noam Scheiber lists the reasons why Gore might not want to endorse Obama:
1.) The memory of the ill-fated Dean endorsement looms large for him.
2.) (Which is somewhat related to 1.) He's worried about somehow jinxing Obama.
3.) He's enjoying the contrast between himself (statesman-like, above the fray) and Bill Clinton, who's been rooting around in the mud for his wife and damaging his legacy in the process.
To that list, I can't help adding a thought of my own: If, as now seems possible, this race goes to the convention and the convention gets deadlocked, is it so crazy for Gore to imagine himself as either a.) one of the party elders who decides the outcome, or b.) a unifying, white knight candidate in his own right? And, if that's not crazy, shouldn't Gore sit tight for now?
I don’t think Al Gore still wants to be President the way, say, Mitt Romney clearly wants to be President right about now. But I bet some part of him still wants it, and though I hadn’t really contemplated the “brokered convention turns to Gore” scenario, I’d been assuming that his own lingering ambitions are playing some role in his reluctance to endorse Obama. Especially since the Dean endorsement, while it’s remembered as a blunder because the good doctor flamed out, seemed at the time like the work of a canny politician positioning himself for a future run. Howard Dean was never going to be President, whatever ex-Deaniacs claim when they’re deep in their cups, and Gore had to know it. Associating himself with the Dean insurgency was thus a way for him to officially throw his weight behind the anti-war, anti-Bush, and yes, anti-Hillary Clinton camp within the Democratic Party, a move that might have plausibly reaped great dividends had he decided to run for the party’s nomination in ’08.
In the event, he didn’t – and now he has another chance to endorse the anti-war, anti-Clinton candidate. But whereas Dean was doomed to defeat, Obama might just win this thing, and even if he doesn’t he’ll probably be back again in 2012 or 2016 with his halo more or less intact. By endorsing Dean, Gore was blessing a candidate whom he could plausibly regard as little more than a stalking horse for his own ambitions; by endorsing Obama, though, he’s giving his blessing to a man whose star increasingly outshines his own. A world in which Barack Obama becomes President is a world in which Al Gore almost certainly never will, and while I don’t think this consideration matters as much to him as it once might have, I’m sure it’s crossed his mind.
Photo by Flickr user World Resources Institute Staff used under a Creative Commons license.
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Obama might just win this thing, and even if he doesn’t he’ll probably be back again in 2012 or 2016 with his halo more or less intact.
I'm not sure that's a given. If Clinton wins the nomination, and then the election, Obama will have to decide whether to distance himself from her and risk looking like an opportunist, or to associate himself with her and risk looking like just another politician. Since the differences between them are more rhetorical than concrete there's only so long Obama's "candidate of change" shtick can keep working.
Even if the GOP wins the election Obama--if he chooses to stay in the Senate--will accumulate the same calculating and compromising record as every other senator. He's already doing that--witness Clinton's ability to blunt his anti-war rhetoric by pointing out that they have identical voting records on the war since he took office. The longer people pay attention to Obama while Obama doesn't change anything, the less plausible he is as an inspirational candidate.
And if he comes this close without winning then that magic won't all transfer to his next campaign. You only get to be the fresh-faced underdog once.
I actually like Obama, but I think his appeal, as well as what he actually offers, are a lot more limited than many of his supporters believe. I don't think he has all that much depth. He could acquire it between a defeat in '08 and another run in '12 or '16, but at that point he'd be a much different person and candidate. Inspiration and long experience don't tend to mix.
Posted by JB | February 4, 2008 10:32 AM