Joe Carter's Super Tuesday reflections are worth a look. They dovetail, it seems to me, with Jay Cost's useful distinction, from way back in October, between the perpetual campaign - for money, pundit approbation and so forth - and the real one. Romney did very well in the former, but it didn't do him much good in the end.
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Voter-Based Reality
06 Feb 2008 10:27 am
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Comments (3)
I'm with Joe. There's absolutely no evidence to buttress the silly idea that Huckabee and Romney are splitting the "conservative" vote. It doesn't even pass a basic logic test, given how much time those on the far-right have spent decrying Huck's alleged liberalism. If anything, the data shows that McCain would have a significantly larger majority without Huck in the race.
The fringe conservatives just have to accept the fact that they're a far smaller group than they'd believed. They're angry in large part because they're starting to realize this.
This election so far on both the Republican and Democratic sides has proved the chattering pundits to be rather out of touch. Joe Carter makes a nice distinction here.
Another truism from the pundits that the Democrats are destined to win the November election might prove to be ultimate folly.
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I think this analysis is spot-on. A lot of GOP pundits and interest group leaders are going to come out of this campaign with their reputations and clout sorely deminished. In hindsight, Dobson's "I prefer not to" strategy look pretty shrewd, especially compared to Robertson falling for Rudy.
On the Democratic side, it looks like the perpetual and real campaigns have synced up for both candidates, after some see-sawing. Hillary and Obama are both raking in lots of money, are neck-and-neck in delegates and votes, and both have strong bases of support in the party establishment. On top of that, Dems overwhelmingly like both candidates. It's a good position to be in for my party. Whoever wins the nom will be at the head of an energized and united party flush with cash. Feels good.
Posted by Justin K. | February 6, 2008 11:06 AM