Why Rudy Lost

If John McCain's comeback seemed to be engineered by the goddess Fortuna, Rudy Giuliani's slow slide into irrelevance was vastly more predictable; indeed, it was sufficiently overdetermined that almost any explanation for why he didn't win the GOP nomination is likely to contain some element of the truth. Was it because he couldn't make peace with social conservatives? Absolutely. Was it the shadow of scandal from his years as Mayor? Almost certainly. Was it the waning political salience of 9/11? No doubt. Was it the unfavorable way the early primary schedule lined up - with no obviously Rudy-friendly states casting ballots before Florida - joined to the difficulty of making the leap from Mayor to President? Probably so.

To this litany, I'd just add the following: I think the Giuliani campaign was deceived by Rudy's leap to a dramatic early lead in the national polls, and allowed his huge, seemingly-enduring edge to shape how Rudy sold himself throughout the race. The polls said that he was the front-runner, so he behaved like a front-runner, running a cautious, uncreative campaign that apart from its deviations on abortion seemed designed to be as cookie-cutter conservative as possible. Tax cuts, border security, a strong national defense, school choice, strict-constructionist judges - it was an agenda ideally-suited to an establishment candidate trying to build a lead and hold it, but Rudy, despite his boffo poll numbers early on, was never actually that candidate. Whatever Gallup said, he was always a dark horse, always an insurgent running against the grain of his party, and to have any chance he needed to campaign like one, looking for ways to break the mold and capitalize on his sui generis appeal.

What should he have done instead? Well, he could have run on the Frum agenda, or something like it. He could have run as a populist of sorts, as Reihan and I suggested early on, trying to capitalize on his old-school Reagan Democrat roots and pick up on some of the themes that Mike Huckabee ended up emphasizing. Or he could have run as a radical federalist, as Dan McLaughlin has suggested, simultaneously attacking Roe and promising to cool the culture wars.

Maybe - probably - none of these strategies would have worked either. But any of them would have been better tailored to the obvious-in-hindsight reality that Rudy's candidacy was always much, much more of a long shot than it looked when he was riding high last spring. And if nothing else, they might have prevented him from coming in behind Ron Paul quite so often as he did.

Photo by Flickr User Joe Crimmings used under a Creative Commons License.

Comments

9iullani lost because even his friends know he's a despicable prick.

Posted by MoeLarryAndJesus | February 1, 2008 11:02 AM

Giuliani has also made a lot of enemies. He's so incredibly abrasive and pugnacious, it's inevitable. I just don't know how you can be a politician and have such disdain for maintaining friendly ties with the people who should be laying the groundwork or you. I mean, look at his relationship with the New York firefighters. If you are essentially running as the Mayor of 9/11, isn't it absolutely essential that you have people like them in your pocket? Most everyone expects the "hometown boost," the support that comes from your own state. But there's never been particular reason to believe that Giuliani is particularly liked even in New York City. He seems to be a man who has raised bearing a grudge to virtue. I have no idea if he could have mended fences with the firefighters or not. But he seems like a man who is temperamentally unable to swallow hard and play nice with people he doesn't want to. And I just don't see how you can get elected President that way.

Posted by Freddie | February 1, 2008 11:14 AM

huge, seemingly-enduring edge
boffo poll numbers

This is just an illustration of one of the errors in thinking that got Giuliani into his mess. His edge was never that big or that durable even in his stronghold states, let alone nationally. 30% polling may look good when you have five opponents polling under 20%, but it's not enough to win with unimproved...

Posted by bbartlog | February 1, 2008 11:34 AM

While noting the one glaring omission that others have touched on - the more people got to know Rudy, the more they disliked him - this analysis is a good one, Ross. Particularly your read on the campaign. They tried to build an air of inevitability, but in the end they themselves were the only ones buying it.

And this I say as a nonpartisan: Of the candidates who had a realistic shot at the White House, he was absolutely the worst possible choice. Dems and Republicans alike should rejoice that he's slinking away.

Posted by Woody Bombay | February 1, 2008 11:44 AM

the goddess Fortuna

Is that a reference to A Confederacy of Dunces? Well played, for several reasons. Overdetermined, as it were.

Posted by ignatius | February 1, 2008 12:51 PM

rudy married his cousin--dumped her
rudy cheated on 2nd wife--humiliated, dumped her & cheated on her misusing public funds
rudy's kids hate him
3rd wife on marriage 3 too
he's catholic, mind you
bernie kerick, fired his fabulous police chief etc. it was only a matter of time before this dirt caught up. he was NEVER, whatever his platform, going to win.

Posted by jay | February 1, 2008 1:55 PM

I'm no big fan of Rudy, but are you so cynical about him to suggest that "he could have run as a populist" just to get elected? To take the line abotu the army politicians run with the ideology they have, not with the ideology they would like to have. OK, at least that's true for the better politicians. Rudy could also have run as a anti-war feminist, and maybe he'd have garnered more votes. What's the point of thinking that? Are you assuming that the point is to win, no matter what you stand for?

Posted by NS | February 1, 2008 2:57 PM

indeed, it was sufficiently overdetermined that almost any explanation for why he didn't win the GOP nomination is likely to contain some element of the truth.

Very nicely put.

Posted by Mike | February 1, 2008 3:01 PM

no obviously Rudy-friendly states casting ballots before Florida

This I don't follow. New Hampshire ought to have been very favourable territory for Rudy. The Republican electorate is not very socially conservative, there's no great culture gap, and it's an open primary. Giuliani had two tough opponents there in McCain and Romney, but objectively I think it's quite a favourable state for him.

Posted by gerard | February 1, 2008 3:32 PM

gerard writes: "New Hampshire ought to have been very favourable territory for Rudy. The Republican electorate is not very socially conservative, there's no great culture gap, and it's an open primary. Giuliani had two tough opponents there in McCain and Romney, but objectively I think it's quite a favourable state for him."

Very true, and it really makes no sense at all. Maybe he thought Red Sox fans were pissed at him or something. Or Judy won't go to states with no good shopping. It's a mystery.

Posted by MoeLarryAndJesus | February 1, 2008 6:45 PM

Rudy alienated everyone Bush alienated, plus the religious right (except Pat "Rudy'll kill the sand-n****ers and that's good enough for me" Robertson).

I would say that Rudy's pro-war policies would turn the independents and Democrats - who like his social liberalism - against him, but the fact that so many antiwar people voted for McCain contradicts that.

Posted by Glaivester | February 1, 2008 10:46 PM

There are things about Giuliani that would turn off independents who weren't turned off by McCain.

Giuliani, rightly or wrongly, was seen as a more brutal pro-war type. One of his supporters at NRO wrote some "hurray for waterboarding" type editorial. In addition to that, although it sounds like he was a fine mayor, he did preside when there were notable instances of police brutality in the city.

Unlike McCain Giuliani is pro-war without ever actually fighting in any war so far as I know. Many independents seem to be more open to hearing from a pro-war person who has experience with war.

Unlike McCain he's a New Yorker. As Hillary is running as a New York Senator it's just too much New York. Plus many Americans don't relate to New York City. They see it on almost all their TV shows, but that might not be a positive on the matter. (Judging by TV New Yorkers are often either rude and thuggish or neurotic intellectuals. Rudy is not normally seen as an intellectual)

Unlike McCain Giuliani is of Italian descent. This matters to a degree because of how it connects to stereotypes of New Yorkers. Italian-American New York males are generally portrayed as crude, boorish, and oversexed. Three marriages, one of them to his cousin, probably didn't help that much. Interestingly Americans have never voted for any person of Italian descent for President. I don't believe they've even voted for a ticket that had an Italian-American running-mate.

Posted by Thomas R | February 2, 2008 8:10 AM

Why did he lose? Crony Capitalism, exposed, can take these guys down. To the bitter end he didn't want to talk about Giuliani & Partners (the kinder, gentler version of Kissinger & Associates). But it began to leak out, all of his chummy deals and his influence-peddling.
You could sum it up in one word: Judy. But I'd choose another one: Jack. I think it was his Jack Welch-persona that wasn't working.
Next up - or down - depending on how you look at it is Romney. I hope he gets the nod so we can start digging into Bain. Romney makes Al Checchi look like a saint.

Posted by fougasseu | February 2, 2008 8:15 AM

This I don't follow. New Hampshire ought to have been very favourable territory for Rudy.

To a lesser extent, the same could have been true of Michigan as well. In the early days of the campaign, Giuliani supporters were touting his appeal to blue-collar Catholic "Reagan Democrats," of which Michigan has a lot, and identified Michigan as a state he could either peel off from the Democrats or force them to invest extra resources in. Plus, Michigan has an open primary, and with no Democratic delegates at stake Democrats and Independents could easily be convinced to vote in the GOP primary instead.

Again, as with New Hampshire, there was a candidate with more of a historic tie to the state, but you need only look at how close McCain came there despite having no natural Michigan ties to see how winnable it could have been.

Posted by cminus | February 4, 2008 7:52 AM

Go over to Group News Blog and read the many excellent postings from LowerManhattanite. By the time Giuliani got around to run for president, there were so many groups just ITCHING to plant the first (knife, bullet, axe, knitting needle, sandbag) that it's surprising they found a spare inch of flesh.

Giuliani pissed off a lot of people in NYC. He had sufficient deadly personal baggage, sufficient cronyism, and sufficient all-around sleeziness that the odor just got worse and worse.

I think what really gave the coup de grace was the description of Giuliani as "a noun, a verb, and "9-11"" You would have thought that would have convinced the silly idiot he might have been pushing it a little too much. But noooo.....in the end, his "9-11" Tourette's syndrome sounded like something out of the Onion. Result: Giuliani turned himself into a total howling farce of a joke.

Posted by grumpy realist | February 4, 2008 8:11 PM