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The Case Against Webb

28 May 2008 05:54 pm

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James Joyner has a good round-up of the arguments against the Webb-for-veep meme. Daniel Larison makes the strongest case:

Democrats cannot defeat today’s GOP in a bidding war over who is more militaristic and irresponsible in foreign policy, just as the GOP can never outbid the Democrats when it comes to making lavish, irresponsible promises about domestic spending. To fight the election on this ground is a losing proposition for Democrats, and this is why efforts to out-veteran the veteran opponent, which is part of the rationale for selecting Webb, will simply draw attention to the “weaknesses” that have been attributed to Obama. It is an attempt to beat the opposition at its own game with a candidate who is uniquely ill-suited to playing that kind of game. Hence he has tried to frame the election in entirely different terms, because once the election is defined along tradiitional lines he probably knows that he will lose.

Suppose he chooses Webb. What then? Each time someone explains why he chose Webb, the answer will come back that he had to choose someone who had served in the military (because he hadn’t) and whom Middle Americans could accept (because they couldn’t accept him), and so each time Webb is mentioned voters will be reminded of the critique of Obama. He has negatively defined himself in ways that are particularly advantageous to his opponent. Instead of destroying or cancelling out the critique, it would strengthen it, and simultaneously play the game of the “old politics” that Obama professes that he wants to escape. Is there an electoral reality that confirms that Obama has political weaknesses with certain constituencies? Of course. The trick, then, is not to dwell on those weaknesses and not obsess over winning over voters who cannot be won over. The larger point would be that if Obama is so unelectable that he cannot put together a winning coalition without accomplishing the impossible and winning over these die-hard anti-Obama Democrats of Appalachia and so forth, it won’t matter whether he chooses Webb or Tony Hawk. Meanwhile, choosing Webb sends the signal that he is going to chase a will o’ the wisp and lacks confidence in his ability to win without that sort of overt symbolic pandering.

There's definitely something to this argument: I think that by picking Al Gore in 1992, for instance, rather than some Dem graybeard with stronger foreign-policy credentials, Bill Clinton sent an effective signal that he wasn't going to play by the GOP's rules, and that he was going to double down instead of the theme of change, both political and generational, that animated his campaign. But the beauty of the Webb pick is that it has the potential to offer the best of both worlds. Yes, it addresses some of Obama's weaknesses (national security, the white working class) and maybe helps him in the potential swing state of Virginia. But it also doubles down on one of his biggest strengths - specifically, the notion that he's the standard-bearer for a post-partisan Democratic Party. After all, what separates Webb from, say, a John Kerry or a John Edwards - both of whom appealed to Democrats because they seemed to (but didn't really) shore up the party's weaknesses on national security and with the white and Southern working class - is that he really is a different kind of Democrat. He isn't a conventional left-liberal who happens to have a military record and/or a Southern accent; he's a more sui generis figure, a cultural (though not social) conservative with heterodox views on a variety of issues.

This is why, were I Obama, I would look at the left-liberal case against Webb - on the grounds that he's too anti-feminist, too pro-military, too skeptical about affirmative action and immigration, too hostile to Hollywood and academia - as an advertisement for the pick. An Obama-Webb ticket wouldn't send just a message that people who share the same ethno-cultural identity as Jim Webb can have a home in the Democratic Party, the way Kerry and Edwards were supposed to show that veterans and Southerners could too be Democrats; it would send a message that people with Webb's views can have a home in the party. It would lend substance to Obama's thus-far insubstantial claim to be something other than a party-line liberal, and in the process it would have the potential to achieve at the national level what the Congressional Dems have successfully done at the local level - namely, expand the definition of what it means to be a Democrat. That's the promise, as-yet-unfulfilled, of the Obama campaign. And that's how you build a lasting majority.

Photo by Flickr user Kalexnova used under a Creative Commons license.

Comments (34)

it would send a message that people with Webb's views can have a home in the party. It would lend substance to Obama's thus-far insubstantial claim to be something other than a party-line liberal

Not to mention the true beauty of it is that in real policymaking terms, it would have the opposite effect. It would remove Webb's heterodox point of view from the Senate, where he has some actual ability to influence policy, to the Naval Observatory, where Obama can freely ignore him. It would seem "substantial" without actually being so.

Take that even farther - to Chuck Hagel - thus immunizing Obama - "I picked Hagel because he is an honest Republican and not because he is an awesome war hero" - while getting the benefits of his white war hero-ocity.

Putting James Webb on a possible path to the Presidency would be a real hard stretch for Rev. Wright's longtime protege to force himself to do. What would Michelle say?

Obama really wants to be President, but he didn't spend 20 years in Rev. Wright's church for nothing. Rather than quietly cutting Wright loose as he geared up his Presidential campaign, Obama gave $53,000 to Wright in 2005-2007. Obama's career up until 2004 was based on proving to blacks that he, the half-white preppie from paradise, was "black enough."

So far, Obama has calculated pretty exactly how little he has to compromise to get elected President.

If Obama takes Webb, then McCain has to take Palin. Abortion rights would no long save Obama because by taking Webb the snubbing of the feminist left would be complete.

Never gonna happen. Webb hurts the genuinely military-hostile base of the party, and brings too high a risk of shooting his mouth off in a way that demands his head to appease some important interest group. If he's the veep candidate, a month later he won't be.

And that's because, quite frankly, people with his views AREN'T welcome in the party.

What does Obama have to do to be elected President. Hold off Hillary, which seems like a done deal, and hold off an old man who has closely linked himself to a very unpopular President.

Moreover, Obama has carefully studied the advantages of being black in American politics in the 2000s. He knows he can get away with running a highly misleading campaign about himself as a racial conciliator, and even drop baldfaced lies, as he did about Rev. Wright, because the white media is very uncomfortable with thinking hard about anything having to do with race.

So, why tie himself down with some hillbilly intellectual / war hero who doesn't feel any white guilt and, no doubt, understands full well how phony Obama's act is?

Obama is a smart guy, so he can figure out how disastrous for black politicians is Webb's ethnic strategy, so he won't validate it by picking Webb.

See, Webb has seceded from the white majority and denominated himself a representative of a poor, oppressed ethnic minority, the Scots-Irish, who were, uh, bamboozled into fighting for the Southern plantation owners. So, no white guilt for Jim Webb!

The last thing Obama wants to encourage is this kind of ethnic secession from the white majority. Blacks like Barack and Michelle Obama have done very well for themselves under a racial spoils system in which it's assumed that the majority can give quotas to the minority because the majority is so big that it won't hurt the majority much. But when everybody starts bailing out of the majority and demanding their own quota, the whose affirmative action system starts falling apart.

For this to work, Webb would have to give a fuller accounting of his journey away from some of those sexist things he wrote back in the 1980s.

I tend to like the idea of Webb as VP for the reasons Ross gives. Naming Webb right now would probably hurt Obama a bit, but if the contest ends next week, Obama has a while to repair bridges before picking a running mate. With Webb as VP, he expends political capital with feminists (though if Webb can make the case that he's had a reawakening it might actually gain him yardage there) but I think it makes a pretty good statement overall.

"For this to work, Webb would have to give a fuller accounting of his journey away from some of those sexist things he wrote back in the 1980s."

Of course, Obama has never given an account of his journey away from all the racialist things he wrote in 1995 (assuming there has been such a journey since then). And almost nobody has asked him about it.

Never gonna happen. Webb hurts the genuinely military-hostile base of the party.

How does it "hurt" anti-military Democrats? It's only, you know, the vice presidency. And anyway, what are anti-military (whatever that means) Democrats supposed to do? Vote for Senator One Hundred Years?

I'm not a big Webb fan myself. But the Electoral College will have a say in Obama's choice. Maybe a big say. And I suspect the GOP won't hold Virginia with Webb on Obama's ticket.

Obama and Webb -- They are the two politicians smart enough to figure out each other's ethnic shticks and despise each other for them. I'd love to see them stuck in each other's company for four years. It would be hilarious.

...shocked, shocked to see that Steve Sailer sees conspiracies and lies behind the allegiances of a black politician...

Basically, the question that is raised by Webb is the question of what sorts of heterodoxy are good for Obama and good for the Democratic party.

People like Kathy G and myself will tend to argue that there really isn't a need for heterodoxy in the general election. Though people like Webb, and much more conservative Dems like Heath Shuler and Don Cazayoux are perfectly ok as regional representatives, the party has no need to put them in central positions of power. Certainly this general election heterodoxy shouldn't come at the cost of issues - women's rights - that Kathy G and myself consider to be essential to the movement.

People like Ross Douthat will tend to argue that there is need for heterodoxy in the general election, and that this heterodoxy should come at the expense of issues - social order, family values - that he considers the Democratic party to be on the wrong side of.

Re: Abortion rights would no long save Obama because by taking Webb the snubbing of the feminist left would be complete.

Al Gore had a pro-Life past. And George Bush, pere, had a pro-Choice one.

Re: Webb hurts the genuinely military-hostile base of the party

If you mean people who hate the military no matter what (rather than people who hate the Iraq War), how many of them are there? I mean isn't that a little like the GOP pandering to people who want to outlaw not just abortion but also birth control? Yes, key factions must be mollified, but are those with views well beyond the pale a key faction?

Re: And that's because, quite frankly, people with his views AREN'T welcome in the party.

Last I checked Webb is fairly opposed to our current Middle East policy (and not because he wants a harsher one a la McCain). Though I'm not sure about this, I suspect this would carry over to disapproval of other feckless foreign misadventures. Where's the problem?

Re: People like Kathy G and myself will tend to argue that there really isn't a need for heterodoxy in the general election.

Heterodoxy-- or rejecting the logic of Karl Rove and seeking to capture the vital center?

The funny thing is that Obama is running, despite all his "Bring us together" rhetoric, as a Karl Rove-style candidate who knows he needs just 51% of the vote to win. He knows that he only has to beat Hillary, a proven incompetent (see HillaryCare, RIP) whose main qualification is being an ex-President's wife. Then he only has to beat a Republican saddled with George W. Bush's legacy.

He's going to eke out about a 51-49 win over Hillary. He couldn't put her away, the way primary candidates normally develop momentum (e.g., Kerry in 2004), because he delayed so long in cutting Rev. Wright loose. Why did he delay? Because Rev. Wright represents a very important part of who he thinks he really is, as any close reader of Obama's autobiography can tell. Obama talks a good game about racial conciliation, but when it came to something very important to him -- Rev. Wright -- he figured he could get away with lies and Baroque O'Blarney bloviation. And he's probably right.

Similarly, while a generic Democrat should win about 57% this fall, Obama will be content to win narrowly rather than make any concessions on any issues touching on the racial identity he spent so many years devising for himself.

I think Larison's argument makes perfect sense as a criticism . . . of picking Wes Clark. Not of picking Webb.

Webb was Reagan's Secretary of the Navy. He left the GOP substantially because of his disgust at the Iraq War and all that war said (to him) about the nature of the modern GOP.

Picking Webb would say: the bedrock of my coalition is opposition to the Iraq War. I start there and build outward. There are lots of ways in which Webb could help Obama in coalition-building, but this is the most important.

There are plenty of other candidates who opposed the Iraq War. There's nobody else I can think of who is comparably prominent and comparably defined by that opposition. Nor, precisely for that reason, precisely because Webb, a consummate military man, who resigned from Reagan's administration because Reagan wasn't going for a big enough Navy, *left the GOP over this issue* is there anybody else who can better bolster Obama's claim that the GOP is wrong on foreign policy from the core, that foreign policy is a huge GOP weakness, not a strength.

Chuck Hagel can't do that. First of all, because he supported the war at the outset. But more importantly, because he has not left the GOP. Picking Hagel would be reaching across the aisle, finding common ground. That's what you do after you win, and expand your majority, negotiating from a position of strength. Webb left the GOP and ran for the Senate as a Democrat. Picking him is saying to other GOP dissenters, "come on in; the water's fine." It's expanding a potential majority, not diluting it.

re: DivGuy: what, precisely, is Webb unacceptably heterodox on? The only hot-button issue I can think of is gun rights - and that's an issue that is just not a high priority question for the national Democratic Party and where Obama could get a lot of traction from a strong gun-rights VP, particularly in a three-way race with Barr. Webb has an absolutely solid abortion-rights record. On gay rights, he supports civil unions and domestic partnership benefits (he has in the past supported don't ask don't tell; I don't know if he's changed his position on this, and if he hasn't he probably would have to if he wants the VP nod). He's to Obama's left on trade and macro-economic issues. What's the issue where he's too far to the right to be acceptable to you?

re: Steve Sailer: Webb is on record as saying that affirmative action should apply only to African-Americans. He's basically made the exact same argument you have - that the system breaks down when you have too many groups seeking quotas - and has also argued that the legacy of slavery gives African-Americans a unique claim not shared by, oh, just to pick an example, Hispanics. I think you've identified the wrong minority that might have reason to question a Webb pick.

re: feminists: I've heard the argument made, in all seriousness, that picking another woman, rather than Hillary, would be an insult to feminists (as it would suggest that women are interchangeable, or that a female candidate is still just a "diversity pick" who can't make it on the merits). I've also heard the argument made, in all seriousness, that not picking a woman as VP, after the race Hillary ran and the history she made, would be an insult to feminists. I suspect there's a serious contingent out there who is going to be bitter and angry no matter what happens. I suspect these people will all work very hard to bring out the vote for Obama in the fall no matter whom he picks. You can't take anyone for granted, but you also can't please everyone.

Steve,

These fevered and multitudinous conspiracy theory posts are endangering your credibility.

Oh...wait a minute....Ooops! Sorry about that. Carry on!

I swear by all that is good and holy that if the Muslim Negro Barack Hussein Obama is elected to the presidency that I and my Aryan brothers will not rest until he is defeated. This shall not pass! This shall not pass!

Also, does anyone know how to get semen stains out of white hoods?

Webb is also not easy looking on the cameras.

too pro-military... too hostile to Hollywood and academia

You're refuting the views of the imaginary hippies who run the Democratic Party in the fantasy world in your brain (and Steve Sailer's), but those aren't factors or categories that affect any actual living Democrats.

Webb is also not easy looking on the cameras.


And George Bush is?

DivGuy:
I wonder why Ross never applies the same principles to his beloved Republican party. Why can't McBush pick Russ Feingold, Tammy Baldwin or Bernie Sanders as his VP? That would show true bi-partisan spirit, right? McCain has a reputation as a maverick to uphold.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Reading both Ross's post and a lot of the comments, I think there a lot of misconceptions about Webb still floating around.

First of all, people have this fantasy that he is a very, very conservative democrat. As far as I can tell, he takes a hard line on immigration, and loves guns. Beyond that, his positions are up and down Democratic. He is pro-choice, for civil-unions, for stem cell research. He is obviously a foreign policy realist, and he is importantly, an economic populist. The idea that he left the party solely because of Iraq is wrong: as he has stated many times, its a confluence of the Bush foreign policy, but he constantly says he never felt comfortable on the issues of the economy or "social justice."

Yes, he does happen to be a badass military man. I don't know what exactly is "conservative" about that, beyond some sort of abstract cultural definition.

This line from Ross especially stuck out:

"too pro-military, too skeptical about affirmative action and immigration, too hostile to Hollywood and academia"

First: his skepticism about affirmative action should be an advantage, not a problem. If Obama is for real, he should be open to reshaping affirmative action along class lines, (as he has hinted at) and Webb has called for. It would be a bold move.

Again, being too pro-military? If that is a serious concern of Obama, or any democrat, they're insane.

And he's anti-Hollywood and academia? Again, simply not true. He produced and wrote a Hollywood movie for goodness sake! (Rules of Engagement) Rob Reiner is currently directing one of his scripts! (Webb's connection to Hollywood was in fact a common talking point of George Allen during the '06 campaign to paint Webb as an "elitist").
As for academia-well he's a best selling novelist, and guest lecturer at the Naval Academy, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan is his hero in the Senate because he brought the mindset of an intellectual.

So I think a lot of misconceptions are still floating about Webb. Other than his 30 year old bashing of women in the military, I think he is far and away the best choice for VP.

The other lingering criticism is that he is a poor campaigner (see the NY Observer): true, to an extent. He is a policy wonk and his campaigns are all about policy. But given all the talk about how working class people didn't relate to Obama's rousing speeches, this might not be an issue. He is also great on TV (see MSNBC, and SOTU response) and a media darling. No, he's not good at kissing babies and raising money, but remember--Barack Obama is still at the top of the ticket. He's also improved slightly since 2006.

His serious foreign policy credentials, white working class background, and maybe most importantly, complete immunity to GOP-Rove attacks make him the undeniable choice for VP.

So how are the ideas that a Webb VP pick would only underscore Obama's weaknesses while a Webb VP pick would show a wider slice of Americans they are welcome in the party not be self-refuting electorally? Ross's points are in contradiction.

If "reshaping affirmative action along class lines" could yield as many minorities as the current system, don't you think we would have done that by now? Minority enrollment at our school would drop upwards of 90%.

We're not idiots. Stop with the whole class based AA fantasy please! Focus on how to improve minority academics so that we don't have to give them AA to admit them.

As a conservative, I don't get the impression that the Democratic base (including feminists, mentioned in the opinions above) will stay home on election day. From over here, it doesn't look like there are as many "alienating the base" concerns for Obama as there are for McCain, even with Webb on the ticket. It seems that despite a hard-fought victory for the nomination that alienated Clinton supporters, there is still time for Obama to bring them back into his camp.

Obama's general campaign concern is the lack of support from white middle-class swing voters. Many of these voters would be comforted by the presence of someone on the ticket with military experience (and impressive experience, at that).

For a conservative like myself, I bristle at the prospect of an Obama presidency (as is to be expected). The inclusion of Webb on the ticket would go far to making me feel very differently, and would do similar things as far as appealing to swing voters who Obama has not been able to reach.

"just as the GOP can never outbid the Democrats when it comes to making lavish, irresponsible promises about domestic spending."

Anybody who says this is a fool or a liar. The GOP's *reality* has surpassed even the *image* of the Democratic Party for 28 years now.

Each time someone explains why he chose Webb, the answer will come back that he had to choose someone who had served in the military

Wow. Just wow.

Is this like the first American presidential election this guy has been awake to witness? Doesn't anyone read history books anymore.

Of course a presidential candidate chooses someone with strengths that balance his weaknesses. They've been doing this for a couple of hundred years.

You just can't make these people up.

Posted by Steve Sailer | May 28, 2008 10:53 PM

Hey, just wanted to let everyone know that this "Steve Sailer" comment was actually written by me, MoeLarryAndJesus. Once again, the psychosexual undercurrent gives it away--that bit about participating in an orgy with Klansmen has been a go-to fantasy of mine for quite a while. Even more satisfying than the one about getting blown by a black trannie in front of a cop. Now if you'll excuse me I need to go wash my hands. And my keyboard.

The polling numbers for the Republican Party right now are at historic lows, because of the war. This is the fundamental character of this election cycle, and that is not going to change between now and November.

If Obama picks Webb it reinforces Obama's position on the war, in sharp contrast to McCain's desire to continue the wildly unpopular Bush position on the war.

Picking someone who reinforces his message on the defining issue of the election woiuld be a smart thing for Obama to do.

The fact that Webb also pushes some broad tent, post-partisan buttons with independents, and expands the electoral map to Virginia, is just frosting on the cake.

As a Security Libertarian, I can't belive this entire discussion. I really like Webb. Loved "Born Fighting". Liked his novels. Loved the idea of an actual Marine as Secretary of the Navy. As soon as Iraq is out of the way a lot of us want Webb back on our side of the fence. I'd be happy with Webb as VP for McCain.
My view of the dedicated Left is that the KOS kids would really be more comfortable expelling Webb from the party. Choosing Webb as VP would be an act of Realpolitik as stunning as JFK choosing LBJ. It would play into the meme that Obama is "just another politician". I can't see Obama or the core of the Democratic Party making such a decision no matter how much it makes sense in electorial politics.

Bill Kovacs, Kos raised money for Webb.

Rejoice! The "dedicated left" America-haters you think have influence in the Democratic Party don't actually exist! Now you can vote for a party that cares about competence and empiricism!

Bill Kovacs:
to echo the point Anon made about Webb. Plenty of Kos readers gave to Webb's campaign(and his PAC after his response to the Decider's SOTU speech). Not to mention that Kos used to be in the military. Other than his FISA vote, Webb has a lot of admirers on the left(his economic populism for one). You do realize Webb was originally a Democrat and only left because Carter pardoned those who went to Canada instead of Vietnam, right?

Bill Kovacs,
I'm not entirely sure how a pro-choice, economic populist, who wants to tax the wealthy will ever come back to a socially conservative party that will continue to exploit the military for its own political gains. Its a lot more than the Iraq War buddy.

In assessing who Obama might pick for veep, I'd look for someone who, above all, re-enforces his message of changing the style of politics. The target here is independent voters who are more socially-libertarian and who are drawn to candidates who convey and create a sense of optimism about the future. I think Ross is right about Webb's chief asset, that he has a mix of policy views to go with a non-liberal ethno-cultural gestalt that is appealing to a certain kind of swing voter. But I think it's the wrong kind, more a socially-conservative Dem and independent. If this is correct, he'll have to get that group on policy grounds (do you really want more of the same on taxes and Iraq). Ditto for feminists (do you really want McCain nominating Supreme Court justices)? On more visceral, emotional grounds, look for him to get someone who represents change away from partisan combativeness and demonizing as a way of doing business. That's my hunch anyway.


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