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Iraq and False Choices

26 Jun 2008 11:37 am

“The mask slips,” Andrew writes of this Max Boot post, in which Boot argues that “in order to build on the success that General Petraeus and his soldiers have had, we need to maintain a long-term commitment in Iraq – for 100 years if need be, as John McCain has said.” What mask? Max Boot has never pretended to be anything other than a liberal imperialist, an advocate for the necessity of reshaping the American military dramatically to prepare us for a long series of “savage of wars of peace.” The real question is whether Boot’s neo-imperialist posture and the current left-of-center position on Iraq – the surge has succeeded, therefore we need to leave just as quickly as if it had failed – are the the only positions available as we debate the Iraq question in this election. Andrew thinks so, writing that Boot “helps us realize that this election is indeed at root a decision on whether to keep troops in Iraq for the next century or more.” But this strikes me as an overstatement: There are no decisions that John McCain can undertake, up to and including basing decisions, that a future administration can’t reverse as the facts on the ground change, and there’s no reason why McCain’s plan to gradually reduce our numbers in Iraq over the next four years can’t serve as a prelude to a minimal American presence in that country throughout the 2010s, with a complete pullout a possibility as a conditions on the ground (and the wishes of the Iraqi government) permit.

Andrew goes on:

This obviously isn’t about Iraq, as we are fast discovering. It’s about an ever greater American entanglement in the Middle East in part to secure oil supplies we need to wean ourselves off and in part a foolish attempt to protect Israel.

Well, maybe. There are certainly people for whom the debate over troop levels in Iraq is ultimately about whether American foreign policy gets set on a more explicitly imperialist trajectory, and there’s no question that such voices will be more empowered under a McCain Administration than by a President Obama. The question is whether the likely practical results of a McCain Presidency – a Presidency that will be constrained by all kinds of factors, foreign and domestic – will so empower the Boot vision of America’s role in the world (which I do not share) as to make a vote for McCain a vote for Boot.The alternative, which seems more plausible to me, is that a vote for McCain under these circumstances is a vote for something for modest: Namely, a reduction in U.S. forces in Iraq that will proceed more gradually than the reduction Obama is promising, and that will leave the long-term question of the size and scope of America’s entanglement in the Middle East for future administrations to wrestle with.

Comments (26)

I have to ask why you think McCain represents a troop reduction? I seem to recall McCain being consistent on the need for more troops in Iraq.

If the country is stable, why do we need to stay?

You mock left-of-center types, because all roads for them lead to leaving. But all roads for you lead to staying. And I'll take the former, because it is unnatural and unAmerican for us to have our army in a foreign country outside of the immediate aftermath of war.

C'Mon, Freddie, I think Germany and Japan are clear examples of the "unamerican" presence you describe.

I agree with Ross. Even if a McCain vote would support Boot's view (which I support, at least more than Ross), what would really be done in four years? Probably something more modest - and yes, McCain has hinted at troop reductions, but not with the specific timetables some would like. More than likely, we'd at least begin to see these political and strategic changes the surge is supposed to facilitate.

Obama and McCain will send us in opposite directions, but I can't see the course of either president diverging that much from the other in four years.

C'Mon, Freddie, I think Germany and Japan are clear examples of the "unamerican" presence you describe.

Indeed. We shouldn't be there, or in Korea, either.

Andrew does allude to the "increasingly obvious" fact that the war was waged, at least in part, on Israel's behalf. If that were indeed the case, would it not have been just as obvious at the outset? Given that Andrew was in favor of the war, wouldn't support for Israel have been part of his motivation? And if not, why does he assume that it must have been part of the motivation for other proponents of the war?

Andrew needs a scapegoat to expiate his own sense of sin for supporting the invasion. And, looking around, where does he find one?

How surprising!

"The alternative, which seems more plausible to me, is that a vote for McCain under these circumstances is a vote for something for modest: Namely, a reduction in U.S. forces in Iraq that will proceed more gradually than the reduction Obama is promising, and that will leave the long-term question of the size and scope of America’s entanglement in the Middle East for future administrations to wrestle with."

What are the chances that your assessment of McCain is wrong? What if "Bomb,bomb,bomb Iran" was the McCain foreign policy in a nutshell? Is there any particular reason to take that risk?

The question isn’t how many troops remain on the ground, it’s what they’re there for—their strategic purpose.

The immediate purposes appear to be keeping the Maliki regime in power, placating the Sunni tribes with whom deals have been struck, and preserving Kurdish autonomy.

The larger purposes are to prevent an outbreak of civil war (Shiite v. Sunni, Shiite v. Shiite) and intervention by Iranian or Saudi forces, and to prevent further augmentation of Iranian influence in Iraq and in the region, and undesirable exercises of that influence.

Every soldier or marine in Iraq is not available for service in Afghanistan, where the Taliban threat is mounting.

How American strategic objectives should be defined and served is not an easy question. An important related question is whether achieving those objectives would be better served by engaging in negotiations with Iranian officials.
Few would dispute, I suppose, that Mr. Obama is more likely to engage in such negotiations than is Mr. McCain. Maybe the issue Douthat raises is usefully reframed by asking whether engagement with the dominant power in the area is well advised or not. As to this question, see the policy analysis brief by Riccardo Redaelli at http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/resources.cfm?id=330

"leav[ing] the long-term question of the size and scope of America’s entanglement in the Middle East for future administrations to wrestle with" is pretty disingenuous. Indefinite occupation and permanent occupatiuon are not relevantly different.

As always, the question of permanent bases is revealing.

I would disagree with Ross's view, simply because McCain has been a big supporter in the past, not just of the surge, but for Bush's strategic goals for Iraq, which, as is obvious, include the long term presence of significant numbers of troops. What, in any of McCain's recent foreign policy positions, could realistically be described as "modest?"

To the extent that McCain has advocated a draw-down of US forces in Iraq, I don't know for sure, but I would suspect that this coincides with him wrapping up the primary campaign, looking ahead to the general election, and realizing that a platform of "more troops, more fighting, longer deployments, bomb, bomb Iran, rah rah rah!" wasn't going to win him many votes outside of a perniciously single-minded subset of louts in the GOP.

I believed in the comparison to Germany or Japan once, but in hindsight it doesn't really work.

Germany was a newly created nation, about the same age as Iraq, but by 1945 it wasn't in the same situation. The Bavarians weren't exactly ready to bomb American troops over Bavarian nationalism. (At least not so far as I know) The Protestant Germans weren't ready to create militias against the Catholics or vice versa. They had had some experience with parliamentary government and non-Nazi politicians had power in living memory. Also education and civil society were better.

Japan didn't have as much in the way of a democratic history, but they had some experience with civilian government. They were also fairly homogenous. There were Okinawans, Koreans, burakumin, and Ainu but an ethnic civil war in Japan was extremely remote in plausibility. In religion they were 90% or so Shinto/Buddhist with no major disenfranchised religious minority. Also Japan, unlike Iraq or Germany, wasn't something recently created. Japan had existed in some form for many centuries.

In Iraq we're having to try to create things much more from scratch. As well as overcoming some basic design flaws in its own existence. (Germany was at least created by a Germanic state uniting the rest, Iraq is largely a creation of Britain and other outside forces) We're also not really about protecting it from Communism, or even Iran, so much as from itself. I kind of favor staying because I don't see leaving as a good alternative. However staying is not like staying in Germany or Japan. It's unlikely Iraq in 20 years will be remotely like Japan or Germany circa 1970. (As we've already been in Iraq five years) The best scenario is it being maybe like contemporary Bosnia.

We had small permanent garrisons in SaudiArabi following Desert Storm in the 90's. How'd that work out?

(Hint--it was OBL's justification for blowing up the WTC)

Thomas R, it'd be great if you had a blog.

To your points, Josh Marshall adds: "both Germany and Japan had been conquered by the United States and her allies in a wars of aggression that Germany and Japan had started. The civilian populations of each country, whatever their war guilt, had experienced shattering levels of violence and privation in the final years of the war. And both countries were immediately faced by nearby hostile powers they feared much more than the United States."

I don't see the basis for minimizing the differences between McCain and Obama. Given that McCain preferred the failed, more belligerent, more dangerous Bush Jr. policy toward North Korea than the new Christopher Hill policy, I am comfortable saying that McCain instinctively prefers counterproductive militarism and brinkmanship. That's part of why conservatives like Colin Powell might endorse Obama. I wonder who Brent Scowcroft will vote for.

"I am comfortable saying that McCain instinctively prefers counterproductive militarism and brinkmanship."

I am comfortable saying that McCain increasingly reminds me of Teddy in Arsenic and Old Lace.

One does not elect such a person to office; one gets him the help he so obviously needs.

Protect Israel from what?

Saddam's nukes?

"Thomas R, it'd be great if you had a blog."

TR: I've been on science fiction forums for about 8 years and I've heard this from time to time there. I've considered it, but somehow blogging feels narcissistic to me. Why are my opinions, musings, or daily life worth being read? I'm not a journalist and I don't have any book to promote.

In some respects I'm a bit of a loser. I did graduate magna cum laude, but it was from an no-name University. I've been working on my Master's thesis for over three years. A professional science fiction writer once wrote me a kind of fan-letter because of my writing, but I've only ever been accepted by non-paying webzines. I had about three years worth of just rejection. I'm also overweight and lazy.

As Thomas R contends, and Marshall as linked by Sullivan, the analogy to Germany and Japan verges on the absurd.

Germany and Japan had been utterly crushed and destroyed. The very ease and rapidity of the victory in 2003 left a more resistant Iraq.

Germany and Japan started the wars they lost. Iraq did not.

Germany and Japan confronted a potent Soviet Union they feared enough to welcome American protection, even in the form of a transient occupation. Shiite Iraq does not similarly fear its neighbor Iran.

It's interesting that Ross uses the phrase "facts on the ground" here. Permanent bases, which McCain seems to favor building, would be precisely the same sort of facts on the ground as Israeli settlements on the West Bank, and almost as difficult to walk away from.

Thomas R-- well, your opinions are worth being read because people want to read them. That's why we keep telling you we'd be glad to read your blog. Simple enough! Where you went to school really doesn't have anything to do with it.

As to being too overweight and lazy to be a blogger... well, I hope Ross reads these threads and can disabuse you of the notion that those attributes matter.

Anyway, please consider it. The blogosphere and the country are in dire need of thoughtful conservatives. (I can't speak to the need for good science fiction).

Doesn't it feel like a lot of Ross's writings on McCain and the GOP these days sound a bit like wishful thinking? He doesn't really have any real evidence to offer on McCain's behalf. He has an emotional need to vote for the GOP, but doing so contradicts some of his preferences, so he needs to minimize those differences between the parties and candidates today. After all, McCain's vision of conservativism is based all on virtu and pursuing honor. He thinks war is good because it gives young men the chance to become virtuous. Why is he suddenly going to abandon that vision?

Reflections prompted by Sullivan's response:
What kind of defender of the cause is Douthat? The best he can dredge up is that Obama is a little too fast on the drawdown and McCain about right, and that it's PLAUSIBLE to hope that McCain isn't as crazy as Boot.

That is, even the doughty defender concedes a significant risk that disaster-laden dreams of imperialist victory might animate an McCain administration.

No wonder Obama's candidacy generates so much more enthusiasm than does McCain's.

Thomas R.,

No, you seriously should write a blog. You obviously know a lot about history and have some very interesting thoughts. I'd be intrested to read it. Are you a science fiction writer too?

I was against the war when we went in, but I'm not sure that withdrawal would be the best idea now. This is a worse situation than Vietnam- it might well be more like Cambodia. If we withdraw there may be a bloodbath (I'm not sure their _will_ be, and I think that we should be spending more time tryinng to think through likely scenarios). The last five years have been very bad for religious minorities in Iraq. I'm thinking in part of Shias in Sunni areas and vice versa- Shias who get killed because their name is "Ali" or whatever. But even more of the groups who are too small to have an army of their own- the Turkmens, Christians, Jews, Mandaeans, Yezidis, and so forth. I don't think we should leave without some kind of exit strategy to protect their lives or at least moderate the bloodbath that will happen.

Perhaps one thing we could do is issue lots of political refugee visas to Iraqis. I've heard that we currently issue very few of them which is rather ridiculous.

Elvis E writes: "As to being too overweight and lazy to be a blogger... well, I hope Ross reads these threads and can disabuse you of the notion that those attributes matter.

Anyway, please consider it. The blogosphere and the country are in dire need of thoughtful conservatives."

I'll second that, which may surprise Thomas R. I spend as much of my time on RW blogs as I do on LW ones - maybe more.

"Are you a science fiction writer too?" Hector

TR: Kind of. Ross has never allowed me to post links, but maybe I can get around that in a way.

"www.aftertones.flyer.co.uk/bws/allauthors10b.html"

Hopefully you can figure it out from there. Also if you type "Maria Etxea" into a search engine you should get one of my "stories." Much of what I wrote was basically fiction that's written as if it were nonfiction. In some cases I even had fake footnotes. That kind of bores people. Also I sometimes think too many of my characters were Christian, without being Fundamentalists or wacko, to really be sellable in many SF markets. That's probably unfair it's kind of difficult to know the reasons, either way I know my stuff never sold.

I've considered starting a blog linked to "Bewildering Stories." I might ask them, but a part of me is still uncomfortable with the idea.

However if I were to do a blog, and understand I'm still leery of the idea, it probably would not be political all that often. I'm not active in any party or even in any political organization. (Be it Pro-Life, Catholic, human rights, etc) My main interests are probably history, East Asia, science, religion, and music. I'm much less political than most of my family.

ThomasR, we love you anyway!

Ross' defence here is silly: Tim Fernholz brings the pwnage.

Thomas R and others have made clear some of the many ways Iraq is not Germany or Japan. But one of the ways all three are alike is that every serious observer then and now recognized(s) vital national interests at stake in how all three states develop(ed) in the post-war strategic environment.

It is not neo-colonialist to recognize that the issues that brought us to fight in Iraq included standing for an international system that has at least some ability to act against wars of aggression, the proliferation and use of wmd's, genocide, and the violent restraint of trade in vital commodities. We have made plenty of mistakes since 1991, but the idea that we can afford to somehow "leave" ignores reality. At the point we no longer depend on petroleum to have a world economy, and the UN has the capability of successfully addressing the sorts of issues presented by Ba'athist Iraq, we'll need to have some sort of influence, which is to say for some time a military presence, there. Barack Obama knows this as well as John McCain does.