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Iraq in Theory and Practice

17 Jun 2008 09:47 am

I'm broadly sympathetic to the non-interventionist critique of the Yglesias thesis - namely, that Matt's book is trying to draw a bright line between Bush-style crusading neoconservatism and liberal internationalism, when they're actually both aspects of the same hawkish and interventionist spirit that has run through American foreign policy for generations now. To Michael Brendan Dougherty's points, though, I do think that the paleocon lens tends to obscure some very real distinctions between neocons and liberal internationalists: the two worldviews do have significant commonalities, but there are differences as well, which manifest themselves in the sort of interventions the two groups tend to end up championing. (You'll rarely hear, for instance, many liberal hawks waxing eloquent about how we must prepare for war with China.) Thus it isn't quite so outrageous as Dougherty suggests for Matt to present the invasion of Iraq as an "isolated freakout" on the part of the liberal foreign-policy establishment. Yes, there was some overlap between Clintonian hawks and PNAC signatories in the 1990s, and yes, the whole foreign policy establishment was technically committed to "regime change," but the neoconservatives were always vastly more interested than the liberals in the cause of toppling Saddam, and without the impetus of 9/11, things probably would have stayed that way. (Likewise, had Al Gore been President instead of George W. Bush, it's possible that the U.S. would have still invaded Iraq ... but I'm not sure it's all that likely.)

That being said, I do think that the ease with which many liberal hawks who would have been cool to the idea of invading Iraq circa 1999 went over to the interventionist position after 2001 suggests a deeper problem with Matt's attempt - or any attempt - to build systematic theories for international engagement: Namely, that unless you're a very stringent non-interventionist (or a pacifist), no matter what theory of foreign policy you choose, you'll always be able to find justification within the confines of that theory whenever a particular intervention seems like a good idea. In this vein, I sometimes think too much of the debate over the Iraq War has been bogged down by arguments over theory - by Christians arguing over whether just war tradition accommodates the invasion; by liberals arguing (sometimes with themselves) over whether it fits within the Truman paradigm, by everybody arguing about neoconservatism's place in American political history - when to my mind the chief lessons of the war have to do with issues of prudence and practicality, and more specifically with the question of when the costs of war, in lives and treasure, are worth the risk involved and the gains that might be won.

Put another way, I don't think the lessons of Iraq necessarily discredit liberal internationalism, or realism, or neoconservatism, or any of the many theories of U.S. engagement with the world that were invoked to justify support for the war. I don't come away from the events of the last five years convinced that we should never intervene abroad on purely humanitarian grounds, or that we should never go to war without an international body's authorization, or that the whole of American Middle East policy since 1991 (or 1945) has been discredited, or even that we should never launch wars of pre-emption. I come away from them convinced of a point that's simultaneously narrower in scope, but more universal in its application: That whatever theory we take as our guide to international affairs, we need to proceed with greater caution than America displayed in the aftermath of 9/11 about the efficacy of military force, and the costs and consequences of using it.

Comments (32)

Iraq in Theory and Practice

Bad and worse, respectively.

hear hear!

Several aspects of this post seem worth engaging. I'll settle for pointing out that it is amazingly presumptuous to be identifying the 'lessons of Iraq'. There's still a string of daily reports of political violence easily available on the internets.

"I don't come away from the events of the last five years convinced that we should never intervene abroad on purely humanitarian grounds, or that we should never go to war without an international body's authorization, or that the whole of American Middle East policy since 1991 (or 1945) has been discredited, or even that we should never launch wars of pre-emption. I come away from them convinced of a point that's simultaneously narrower in scope, but more universal in its application: That whatever theory we take as our guide to international affairs, we need to proceed with greater caution than America displayed in the aftermath of 9/11 about the efficacy of military force, and the costs and consequences of using it."

We need to avoid electing ignorant monsters like Dumbya Bush. We need to stop even pretending that there were any "humanitarian grounds" for the Iraq invasion. There were none.

And if Ross can write this little non-apology without admitting that there never would have been an invasion of Iraq if the chief export of that country were grapes instead of oil, then I can see why he avoids writing about the war. He's too much of a GOP loyalist to be honest about it.

Theory is the last refuge of the incompetent.

All that matters is giving the most sway in the decision-making process to the people who are the best at what they do, whether in civilian leadership, intelligence, or the military.

This is why the intervention in the former Yugoslavia was, if not a shining success, at least something with a good-enough outcome.

And this is why Iraq was such a debacle: Bush and Rove were foreign policy idiots, but they got everyone else involved to turn their brains off, and follow the worst possible course of action.

If Gore had been president and had decided to invade Iraq, the rationale would have been very different and more reality-based, and he would have had smart, competent people running the occupation; and it would have worked.

The same applies to the economy, which is why the stock market always does better under Democrats than it does under Republicans.

The problem with the conservative movement right now is that it hooked its wagon for the past two decades to a bunch of guys who were idiots at everything besides running for office.

The trend continues: McCain is one of the dumbest and most imprudent candidates the Republican party has ever fielded.

The GOP will never rise again until it starts foregrounding smart people once again. Guys like Romney and Jindal.

lampwick writes: "The GOP will never rise again until it starts foregrounding smart people once again. Guys like Romney and Jindal."

The problem isn't the candidates. The problem is that rank and file GOP voters are predominantly idiots and wackaloons. That's why they're attracted to murderous Jesoid cretins like Dumbya in the first place. That's why Romney ran as a "double Gitmo!" moron.

And they won't vote for Bobby "the Exorcist" Jindal, either, because he's too swarthy for them. That he won in Louisiana is an aberration that won't repeat on the national level.

Bookmark this post for three months time when Ross says

'of course we should be invading Iran'

Diversity = intelligence

White men make up about a third of the US adult population. Yet the GOP saw fit to draw all their candidates from that little pool.

The Democrats weren't hugely better, but they at least had a woman, a Latino, and an African-American; still weighted towards the one-third, but drawing on the other two-thirds of the population.

It is perhaps no accident that in the final rounds the last surviving contestants were the white woman and the black man.

So long as the GOP continues to recruit only from the white male ghetto, don't be surprised if they keep coughing up inferior candidates.

If Jindal or a guy like Romney are too edgy for the GOP, then the GOP is doomed.

I agree with everything here, except this:

(Likewise, had Al Gore been President instead of George W. Bush, it's possible that the U.S. would have still invaded Iraq ... but I'm not sure it's all that likely.)

If Gore had been president, there's a good chance 9/11 wouldn't have happened because he would not have ignored the warnings. Even if 9/11 had happened, there is absolutely no way he would have done something this stupid and reckless.

Theory in a subject like international relations, just as in a subject like literature, is mostly an avenue for mental masturbation for glib people with too much time on their hands.

lampwick writes: "If Jindal or a guy like Romney are too edgy for the GOP, then the GOP is doomed."

Romney's a shitty candidate and he was a mediocre governor in Massachusetts. He ran hard to the right in the GOP primaries and came off as an immense phony. I'd vomit in my mouth every day if he were president.

Jindal's a wackjob who thinks he once performed an exorcism, which would make him a sure thing for Repiglican voters if they could overlook his, uh, swarthiness.

Whatever one's view of the Iraq War, we need to pay attention to present realities. Its clear that the autocratic elements around the world, particularly Russia and China, are resolutely contending with the democracies and that the threat of the Islamic jihadis has hardly evaporated. An excellent summary of this is a recent TNR article by Robert Kagan, The End of the End of History, that ends as follows:

What we do know is that the global shift toward liberal democracy coincided with the historical shift in the balance of power toward those nations and peoples who favored the liberal democratic idea, a shift that began with the triumph of the democratic powers over fascism in World War II and that was followed by a second triumph of the democracies over communism in the Cold War. The liberal international order that emerged after these two victories reflected the new overwhelming global balance in favor of liberal forces. But those victories were not inevitable, and they need not be lasting. Now the re-emergence of the great autocratic powers, along with the reactionary forces of Islamic radicalism, has weakened that order, and threatens to weaken it further in the years and decades to come. The world's democracies need to begin thinking about how they can protect their interests and advance their principles in a world in which these are, once again, powerfully contested.

Kagan, however maligned as a "neo-con," is an incisive, clear-headed analyst of the world scene.

Kagan is absurd.

It's not the emergence of the autocracies of China and Russia or the reactionary forces of Islamic radicalism that has weakened the liberal international order.

It has been entirely the decision by the Bush administration to make the US look more like an illiberal autocracy in its foreign policy and more like a fundamentalist state in its domestic policy that has weakened the liberal international order, by weakening the US' position as leader of that order.

We have 'met' phantom challenges by attempting to become like the phantoms; and in the process we have abandoned our liberal, democratic allies, and tarnished our own ideals.

Petey leavitts: "Kagan, however maligned as a "neo-con," is an incisive, clear-headed analyst of the world scene."

He's a malignant fucking idiot who is best summed up here:

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2007/03/11/kagan/

lithwick, you're being rather facile with the assumption that liberal democratic interests have been traduced by the war in Iraq.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former senior CIA analyst of the Middle East, recently wrote the following in an article, A New Middle East, After All What George W. Bush hath wrought. :

An uneasy and healthy tension now exists between rhetoric and reality, guaranteeing that Americans will continue to debate what has gone wrong and right in the Muslim Middle East. Whether America escapes another 9/11 or not, the president deserves credit for understanding that the region's murderous anti-American extremists, both secular and religious, had to be confronted on the battlefield. Sanctions, cruise missiles shot at rock huts and empty intelligence-service buildings, and close liaison relationships with foreign internal-security services were not enough. If the United States is brutally struck again by holy warriors, President Bush will seem prescient and wise--about the need for reform in the Middle East's autocracies, about the strategic shortsightedness and immorality of pre-9/11 American foreign policy toward Muslims, and about the imperative to use ugly tactics against mass-casualty terrorists. Given the forces arrayed against him, his administration's failures, and his own limitations, these are achievements even Ronald Reagan would envy.

It will take a number of years before anyone can make a reasonable conclusion regarding the success of the War in Iraq.

I don't need a number of years to make a reasonable conclusion.

No matter what happens, when we leave Iraq, it will contain more murderous anti-American extremists than it did before we invaded.

I can say this with confidence (a) because Iraq was not a safe-haven for extremists before we invaded, and (b) because as long as Americans are in Iraq they will breed more extremists than they kill, simply by being there and causing resentment.

Also, whenever we leave the Iraqi government will either be a close ally of Iran or a puppet of Iran.

In other words, we will have strengthened our enemies, and weakened our allies.

This situation will not change with time.

Thank you, Ross! Theories are not decision-making machines. They are perspectives within which a decision-maker is free to exercise good or bad judgment.

That is why int'l relations theories are not best seen as "right" or "wrong" descriptions of the workings of the international system, but rather as explanatory vehicles for analyzing past decisions and predicting future ones.

In this role, theories can alternate in importance, or even overlap. And a good political scientist will forgo identifying himself as an adherent of one theory or another, but will keep them all in his analytical tool kit to be applied when appropriate.

Petey leavitts: "It will take a number of years before anyone can make a reasonable conclusion regarding the success of the War in Iraq."

Gee, that's funny. I seem to remember one douchebag telling us "Mission Accomplished" and another saying the insurgency was "in its last throes." And then there were the moronic Kagans and their disgusting pals assuring us it would be a "cakewalk."

Who should be trusted here - the Leavitts and the Kagans or people who had more reasoned and sober judgment all along?

The funny thing about this comments thread is that I would have thought that Ross' point seems unarguable-- that whatever else the Iraq War teaches us, it certainly teaches us that we need to be prudent and careful and not make blithe assumptions about the efficacy of military force. This should seem obvious even to the pro-surge people in this discussion (after all, the entire reason why Bush felt he needed a surge is because his administration underestimated the military difficulty of what they wanted to do in Iraq in the first place!). And obviously those of us who are against the war should agree with this point.

It's actually a testament to how much the debate over the Iraq War has turned into a tribalistic pissing contest that we can't agree on this simple and obvious point.

Dilan says: "It's actually a testament to how much the debate over the Iraq War has turned into a tribalistic pissing contest that we can't agree on this simple and obvious point."

I think that's because Ross couched the 'point' in ways that make me think he really hasn't learned any such lesson, or that it really doesn't matter to him. He'll be voting for Mr. Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran in November, remember?

Whats missing from the Iraq war debate (as in 'why did we do something so obviously stupid') is that human nature trumps ideology. Neoconservatism, liberal interventionism, Trumanism . . . what REALLY failed the US was the ability to control our fear. Bush was afraid that one indecisive war in Afghanistan would leave him looking weak. He needed a bigger, better war with (as Rumsfeld pointed out) far more targets to bomb and a presumably (at the time) happier outcome. The "liberal" journalists and "thinkers" were afraid of looking weak or stuck in the past while the glorious future (personified by Bush) passed them by. September 11th made Americans feel weak, terrified and impotent - that goes for the people, their leaders and journalists. Every bad decision made since has been made out of fear, not ideology.

Here's a rule of thumb: If a nation's leader needs to convince the people that a war is necessary, then the war is unnecessary.

I can say this with confidence (a) because Iraq was not a safe-haven for extremists before we invaded, and (b) because as long as Americans are in Iraq they will breed more extremists than they kill, simply by being there and causing resentment.

One ought recall that the Government of Iraq intiated a war with Iran in 1980 that ran on for eight years and for which the death toll was (by some accounts) in the seven digits; conquered and despoiled a perfectly benign and harmless principality on its border in 1990; and was responsible (per Human Rights Watch) for north of 200,000 'disappearances' between 1968 and 2003. Freedom House has since 1972 issued annual evaluations of the state of civil liberties and political participation in each country o'er the globe. Iraq received the lowest possible score every year bar two over the period running from 1972 to 2003. The only country on the planet whose performance was similar was North Korea. The 'extremists' were harbored in the Presidential palace (all 49 of them).

Bush was afraid that one indecisive war in Afghanistan would leave him looking weak. He needed a bigger, better war with (as Rumsfeld pointed out) far more targets to bomb and a presumably (at the time) happier outcome.

And you have been employed as the President's amanuensis-cum-psychiatrist since when?

It has been entirely the decision by the Bush administration to make the US look more like an illiberal autocracy in its foreign policy and more like a fundamentalist state in its domestic policy that has weakened the liberal international order, by weakening the US' position as leader of that order.

We are not living in the plot of a novel by Margaret Atwood or Robert Coover.

Art Deco writes: "One ought recall that the Government of Iraq intiated a war with Iran in 1980 that ran on for eight years and for which the death toll was (by some accounts) in the seven digits"

While one is recalling that one should also recall that Dick Cheney and Donny Rumsfeld and Dumbya's daddy were ass-deep in that war, encouraged its start, and provided weaponry to Iraq that helped the killing along. This was one of the reasons sane, decent people never would have voted for the Bushpigs in 2001 in the first place, since it amounted to giving proven scumbags a chance to commit more evil acts. And so they have, as Artie cheered right along.

Until 1991, the United States could intervene only with caution, for fear of a Soviet response. The exception was in its sphere of influence, Central America and the Caribbean, where it sponsored military operations to the great distress of the peoples of Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, as well as deposing regimes in Panama and Grenada.

The US also bombed Tripoli in retaliation for killing two US soldiers in Germany and sent a contingent of Marines to Lebanon, where 241 were killed October 23, 1983.

From 1991 to 2001, the United States intervened with some continued force in Haiti, but also in the Persian Gulf, Iraq (no-fly zones, 1998 bombing—de facto autonomy for Kurds), Bosnia, and in Serbia (in regard to Kosovo). Would these last four interventions have occurred—or would the occasion for them have arisen—had the Soviet Union still been a presence?

Three centuries ago, Fenelon counseled the hegemon of his time, Louis XIV, that he would be easily able to abuse his power and should restrain himself when Britain and Prussia did not. Since 1991, the United States has been much more unconstrained than ever was Capetian France. It would be surprising if the world's only superpower was more likely to err by employing its power too slowly rather than too readily. The US has less to fear than other states that its abuse of power will jeopardize its security in any serious way. But it has more to fear than any state in history that it will succumb to the temptation to employ its power because it can do so at low risk, in the absence of external checks that defines its position in the international system.

Some would argue that since September 11 the United States confronts unparalleled threats and must take off the gloves. Comparisons have been made between Ahmadinejad's Iran and Hitler's Germany, contentions have been advanced that stateless terrorists constitute a menace of new order. Nothing could be more preposterous. Germany was the world's premier power when nuclear weapons did not yet exist to deter. Terrorists in England and Israel have generated widespread fears but still fallen far short of threatening a way of life, let alone the stability of a regime. Compared to any other state in history, the United States has vastly less to fear.

No state will dare to attack the United States. Stateless terrorists, without a return address, may. Though the latter cannot endanger the security of the nation, they can induce fears that threaten Americans' freedom and prosperity, as when commerce is unduly trammeled and the legal bulwarks of freedom are assaulted from within. Americans must, then, be concerned to reduce the risk of terrorist attack. But since w, even precision-guided, have a way of killing innocent people and angering their survivors, it doubtful that their employment is the best way to discourage would-be terrorists.

Perhaps there can be no theory of war, no systematic justification. But a comparison between the structure of today's international system and those of the past suggests that just because the United States possesses a plenitude of power, it should employ it with great caution and restraint. By the use of force its security rarely can be increased and terrorists easily can be bred.

As for “purely humanitarian” uses of force, I know of none. I don't doubt that the people of Grenada, Panama, and Kosovo (the Albanians there, not the Serbs) are better off for American intervention. But their freedom and welfare is none of our business. That's what a world of sovereign states requires, and so also do constituencies of regimes, whose parents demand that their children's lives not be put at risk for the interests of other peoples.

While one is recalling that one should also recall that Dick Cheney and Donny Rumsfeld and Dumbya's daddy were ass-deep in that war, encouraged its start, and provided weaponry to Iraq that helped the killing along.

You need to learn to distinguish your fictions from everything else. Two of these men were private citizens in the Fall of 1980 and the third was a back bench congressman from Wyoming.

"In 1982 with Iranian success on the battlefield, the U.S. made its backing of Iraq more pronounced, supplying it with intelligence, economic aid, normalizing relations with the government (broken during the 1967 Six-Day War), and also supplying weapons.[25] President Ronald Reagan decided that the United States "could not afford to allow Iraq to lose the war to Iran", and that the United States "would do whatever was necessary to prevent Iraq from losing the war with Iran."[26][27] President Reagan formalized this policy by issuing a National Security Decision Directive ("NSDD") to this effect in June, 1982."

I missed a few details. Artie, as always, missed the essential truth. His heroes were ass-deep in the Iraq-Iran war, and they were Saddam's asshole buddies.

And today Artie and his fellow Cheney-suckers pretend Iran has no good reason to oppose the US! Amazing!

While one is recalling that one should also recall that Dick Cheney and Donny Rumsfeld and Dumbya's daddy were ass-deep in that war, encouraged its start, and provided weaponry to Iraq that helped the killing along.

Actually Moe, it was St Ronnie who was objectively pro-Saddam and dick and donny did arrive on the scene untill the mid-eighties.

Ronnie was funding Saddam's genocidal terrorism, but Bush was funding and training Osama and al Quaeda. But to be fair, it is strictly a Republican trait to love to fund Islamic terror; in the past there have been some Democrats involved with it as well. It has merely been more a Republican trait to fund Islamic terrorists, and it happens to have been Bush Sr who really got Osama and the modern Sunni terrorists trained up to be able to fight a modern mechanized enemy (such as the USSR or the USA) -- Charlie Wilson's million guns to the terrorists slogan...

What I find funny is none of that, but it is the modern GOP apologist, who would have us believe that these homeless wahabbi terrorists, who have no known nuclear weapons, a few brigades running around in the mountains and the ghettos, and hardly any infrastructure to speak of, are so terrifying that they are much worse than the USSR -- which had what? Thousands of nuclear weapons, with delivery platforms including air, ballistic, and sea. Light and heavy armored divisions, and the kind of large army you need if you want to crush resistance and sweep across all resistance in Central Europe in weeks. Spies and networks in almost every capital and major city on the planet.

These modern GOP apologists are so cowardly that they quake in their boots at the thought of the scary brown-skinned wahabbi extremists, and beg us to abandon the Constitution, and habeas corpus, and to embrace torture and fascism, to keep them safe from these "terrifying" bad guys.

These cowardly GOP apologists, so frightened of such a small enemy -- oh, if only all these GOP apologists were not such a band of cowardly, draft-dodgers and deserters, they might have some tiny bit of courage, so that we might not have to grovel in the dirt in our fear...

It bothers me that you write with such detachment. Given the tremendous cost in life and injury to Americans and many, many more Iraqis I am amazed at so called intellectuals who sit back and write about the horrible events as if they are the consequences of a chess game.

Interesting and thought-provoking.

Can I take a moment to turn this on its head and ask a question?

If there is/was not much persuasive, in terms of ideological importance, to be gleaned from studying how the "war" (OIF) started, then is there any distinct ideological consequence of simply ending it, pronto?

Put another way, if one listens, in retrospect, to Kissenger agreeing with the proposition that "We will end the war" (and even touting that he did so), but then listen to all the myriad excuses for not ending the war in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, how is that different than having an ideological position?

Clearly, most of the notions advanced, even today, for "stay the course" or "withdraw on success" rest a high level of ... ideation, for lack of a better term, that goes beyond prudence or greatly seeks to define a standard of "care".


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